I'm going to offer the following bet to the authors of the CEPR report:I'll bet that the reports authors will not take the bet.
The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate. The bet will be resolved when Eurostat releases its final numbers for 2018.
I'm happy to bet each of the three authors $100 at even odds. Will they accept?
P.S. By 1% I of course meant 1 percentage-point.
But what about New Zealand's unemployment rate? Would anyone take a bet that New Zealand's unemployment rate will be lower than that in the US over the same period. Given our current labour markets I'm not sure I would. How about an iPredict market on this?
Update: As you can see from the comments section Eric Crampton and I now have a $100 bet on this. Come back in 2018 to see who wins!
Update 2: Bryan Caplan writes
The authors of the "U.S. Unemployment Rate Now as High as Europe" report have turned down my bet.