Friday, 22 May 2009

US v. European unemployment (updated x2)

Bryan Caplan is in a betting mood,
I'm going to offer the following bet to the authors of the CEPR report:

The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate. The bet will be resolved when Eurostat releases its final numbers for 2018.

I'm happy to bet each of the three authors $100 at even odds. Will they accept?

P.S. By 1% I of course meant 1 percentage-point.
I'll bet that the reports authors will not take the bet.

But what about New Zealand's unemployment rate? Would anyone take a bet that New Zealand's unemployment rate will be lower than that in the US over the same period. Given our current labour markets I'm not sure I would. How about an iPredict market on this?

Update: As you can see from the comments section Eric Crampton and I now have a $100 bet on this. Come back in 2018 to see who wins!

Update 2: Bryan Caplan writes
The authors of the "U.S. Unemployment Rate Now as High as Europe" report have turned down my bet.


Crampton said...

I'll take your bet, even odds, $100 NZ. I tend to think NZ labour markets more flexible than those in the US currently, and the near term trajectory is for less flexibility in the US and neutral or more flexibility here. EEO and ADA requirements in the US, only some states are right to work....

Entering it into my Google Calendar for 2018.

Paul Walker said...

Done. And you have been, Crampo!

Anonymous said...

Is that $100 inflation adjusted for 2018? :p

Paul Walker said...

Anon. No if Eric wins, yes if I win.