Wednesday, 4 March 2009

Will Paul Krugman take the beat?

This from Greg Mankiw's blog.
Paul Krugman suggests my skepticism about the administration's growth forecast over the next few years is somehow "evil." Well, Paul, if you are so confident in this forecast, would you like to place a wager on it and take advantage of my wickedness?

Team Obama says that real GDP in 2013 will be 15.6 percent above real GDP in 2008. (That number comes from compounding their predicted growth rates for these five years.) So, Paul, are you willing to wager that the economy will meet or exceed this benchmark? I am not much of a gambler, but that is a bet I would be happy to take the other side of (even as I hope to lose, for the sake of the economy).
I'll wager that he won't!!

To see what Krugman and Mankiw are on about, I outlined the Team Obama forecasts and Mankiw's scepticism with regard to them earlier.

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