Thursday, 2 October 2008

Tyler Cowen's views on the crisis -- a summary statement (updated)

At Marginal Revolution Tyler Cowen gives a 15 point summary of his view of the financial crisis in the US. In a comment to Tyler's posting Alex Tabarrok writes "FYI, my views are very similar to those of Tyler".

The summary is
1. Glass-Steagall repeal was not a major cause of the financial crisis, nor was government-induced "minority lending."

2. We should use regulation to move more of the currently unregulated derivatives markets to the clearinghouse model.

3. The crisis represents a massive conjunction of both market and governmental failure.

4. I would not nationalize banks as ongoing concerns, at least not short of a far more extreme emergency than the current status quo.

5. The modified Paulson plan was better than nothing -- especially after the market had been scared -- but far from my first choice. In any case the plan would have been revised almost immediately. The Paulson and Dodd plans were never that far apart.

6. My first choice is to induce and if need be to force more information revelation, identify the insolvent banks, close them up, and give the battle-tested FDIC a much greater role in the whole process.

7. In the meantime the Fed should not worry much about inflation.

8. The critical deregulatory mistake was allowing excess leverage. Many deregulations get blamed but in fact contributed little to the problem.

9. Everyone says that letting Lehman die was a big mistake but I'm not yet convinced. Maybe a bracingly high TED spread is what we need.

10. Libertarians are overrating the moral hazard argument, as many equity holders have been wiped out.

11. If someone is pushing conclusions and not identifying the potential weak points in his or her arguments, be suspicious. Also beware of anyone pretending to offer you simple answers.

12. I have a long and complicated view on the relevance of Austrian Business Cycle Theory which resists easy summation, but markets could have and should have been more cautious in response to Greenspan's easy money policies.

13. Insolvent hedge funds and the commercial paper market remain outstanding issues which are not easy to address.

14. I agree with Arnold Kling about relaxing capital requirements though at this point I don't expect it to help much.

15. The crisis is complex and has many causes; there won't be a simple or quick solution.
Update: Thanks to Matt Nolan of The visible hand in economics for pointing out this set of notes on the credit crisis by Roger Congleton.

1 comment:

Matt Nolan said...

I really like the outline of the crisis he linked to here:

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/10/roger-congleton.html

It was a good, and simple, read