Glenn's effect on Winston's chance of being sacked

The following graph shows the effect on iPredict's Peter's resignation stock of Owen Glenn's testimony before the Privileges Committee. Remember the contracts wording is

This contract pays $1 per share if Winston Peters resigns or is sacked as Minister of Foreign Affairs any time before the day of the 2008 General Election.

So Glenn added about 5.5 percentage points to peoples view of the chance that Winston will be sacked - quite a lot when you only start 21% below certainty (100%).

Each dot on the chart corresponds to an individual trade.

Over at Kiwiblog David Farrar has The Short Version of what happened today in the Committee hearing.