Thursday 28 August 2008

Key rules peters out: may be

At Kiwiblog David Farrar writes:
Up and down the country National Party members are celebrating as John Key has effectively ruled out Winston Peters as a Minister in a National led Government unless he can provide a credible explanation to the letter from Owen Glenn, which of course is impossible.
I see a time inconsistency problem here. Key can say what he likes now but if after the election Peters is the difference between National being able to form a government and not being able to do so then Peters will be in the cabinet. Key can not credibly commit to never giving Peters a place in cabinet, and you can bet Peters knows it.

4 comments:

Matt Nolan said...

I don't think Key minds the time inconsistency problem as long as people's expectations do not represent it.

So I guess that is the fundamental question - maybe we should do a poll asking the public whether they think John Key will be time inconsistent ;)

Paul Walker said...

Find me any time consistent politician! I guess the real problem is that if voters beleive Key and vote for National, in part, because of it, their votes are sunk. Key knows that and therefore ignores what the voters want and makes an offer to Peters to get what he want, to be PM.

Matt Nolan said...

"I guess the real problem is that if voters beleive Key and vote for National, in part, because of it, their votes are sunk. Key knows that and therefore ignores what the voters want and makes an offer to Peters to get what he want, to be PM."

I thought we were concerned about whether it is a problem for Key or not - if people don't realise that Key commitment is not credible, then he doesn't have to worry about the time inconsistency problem - thats what I mean't to say :)

It only becomes a problem for Key if people do realise that he can't credibly commit to keeping Winston Peters out (and that is sufficient to say, lose him the election outright) - in that case he needs to find a way to pre-commit himself, maybe he could give Bill English the ability to fire him if he lets Winston in the government ;)

Paul Walker said...

I take you point. If voters don't realise that Key commitment is not credible then he has no problem.

It would be interesting to see if he could come up with a way to pre-commit himself to not having Peters. I don't see how. After the election, if it is a near run thing, Key's dominate strategy is to have Peters in cabinet.