Might the Worst Be Over for Africa?

David Warsh at this website Economic Principals asks Might the Worst Be Over for Africa? He writes

At first glance, the news from Zimbabwe last week seems bleak: armed guards, police squads marching in the streets, army veterans threatening to deploy in defense of a dictator Robert Mugabe, whose 28-year-rule unexpectedly has been threatened by the ballot box. Granted, the situation is not as disappointing as in Kenya last winter, where ethnic fighting broke following the disputed election in that nation. Kenya has long been held to be one of Africa’s success stories, whereas Zimbabwe, the once-prosperous Rhodesia, has been in increasingly steep decline ever since hand-over of power from a all-white regime in 1980. Still, the atmosphere in its capital, Harare, is being described by the correspondents there as thundery, at best.

A longer, broader perspective suggests that things may be on the verge turning up for Africa – that, indeed, the election in Zimbabwe may even be a token of just such change. That is the possibility raised by an intriguing paper by Robert Bates and Jeffrey Williamson, of Harvard University, and John Coatsworth, of Columbia University. Published since by the Economic History Review, the working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research makes fascinating reading for anyone who likes comparative political economy.

The Bates, Williamson, and Coatsworth paper argues

Africa and Latin America secured their independence from European colonial rule a century and half apart: most of Latin America after 1820 and most of Africa after 1960. Despite the distance in time and space, they share important similarities. In each case independence was followed by political instability, violent conflict and economic stagnation lasting for about a half-century (lost decades). The parallels suggest that Africa might be exiting from a period of post-imperial collapse and entering a period of relative political stability and economic growth, as did Latin America a century and a half earlier.

Walsh goes on to give an interesting discussion as to what the future may hold for Africa in light of what we have learnt from Latin America. Following Bates, Williamson, and Coatsworth he notes that Latin America, like Africa, suffered from internecine warfare, political instability and economic stagnation, after it gained independence. But at a certain point it stabilized and began to grow. Africa’s experience may turn out to be the same, for many of the same reasons. Indeed, the possibility exists that Africa’s evolution could avoid some of the worst side effects of Latin America’s successful transition. Walsh's article is a good read on an important topic. One just have to hope the answer to his question is yes.