Food aid and civil war: is there a link?

It looks like the answer is yes. There is a new NBER working paper out on Aiding Conflict: The Impact of U.S. Food Aid on Civil War by Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian.

The abstract reads:

This paper examines the effect of U.S. food aid on conflict in recipient countries. To establish a causal relationship, we exploit time variation in food aid caused by fluctuations in U.S. wheat production together with cross-sectional variation in a country's tendency to receive any food aid from the United States. Our estimates show that an increase in U.S. food aid increases the incidence, onset and duration of civil conflicts in recipient countries. Our results suggest that the effects are larger for smaller scale civil conflicts. No effect is found on interstate warfare.

If you are starving, you can't fight?

Great thinkers in economics?

Palgrave-Macmillan has a book series on "Great thinkers in economics". Titles in the series include Adam Smith, Alfred Marshall, Joseph A. Schumpeter and John Maynard Keynes, about which I would think no one could complain.

But the series also includes the likes of John Kenneth Galbraith, Michal Kalecki, Joan Robinson, Piero Sraffa, Gunnar Myrdal, Nicholas Kaldor, Dennis Robertson, Franco Modigliani and Roy Harrod.

First, are these really the greatest thinkers economics has to offer? What of, for example, Menger, Jevons, Walras, Marx, Mill - both James and J.S. - Ricardo, Malthus, Mises, Hayek, Arrow, Becker, Coase, Buchanan, Tullock or Milton Friedman?

Second, isn't there a somewhat obvious Keynesian, largely Post-Keynesian, bias to the books so far published?

The nature of the firm and its financing

The AFA presidential address by Raghuram Rajan is now out as an NBER working paper. The abstract reads:

The nature of the firm and its financing are closely interlinked. To produce significant net present value, an entrepreneur has to transform her enterprise into one that is differentiated from the ordinary. To achieve the control that will allow her to execute this strategy, she needs to have substantial ownership, and thus financing. But it is hard to raise finance against differentiated assets. So an entrepreneur has to commit to undertake a second transformation, standardization, that will make the human capital in the firm, including her own, replaceable, so that outside financiers obtain rights over going-concern surplus. I argue that the availability of a vibrant stock market helps the entrepreneur commit to these two transformations in a way that a debt market would not. This helps explain why the nature of firms and the extent of innovation differ so much in different financing environments.

The idea that the entrepreneur has to be replaceable is important, without this a firm would die with its founder or would die if the founder tried to leave the firm. For a firm to have any chance of outlasting its founder, the human capital of the founder has to be made replaceable.

"The quality of new music has not fallen since Napster."

With issues around Megaupload being in the news, this summary, by Linda Gorman, of an NBER working paper - "Copyright Protection, Technological Change, and the Quality of New Products: Evidence from Recorded Music Since Napster" - from the latest NBER Digest makes the point that "The quality of new music has not fallen since Napster."

Napster was the first widely used program that allowed music lovers to share music by exchanging MP3 files, thereby allowing millions of people to enjoy music without paying for it. Recorded music revenues plunged, raising a concern that piracy would stem the flow of good new music. In Copyright Protection, Technological Change, and the Quality of New Products: Evidence from Recorded Music Since Napster (NBER Working Paper No. 17503), Joel Waldfogel explores the possibility that technological changes in the music industry "may have altered the balance between technology and copyright law for digital products." Despite music industry claims that digital piracy harms consumers by undercutting its revenues and reducing the amount of new music that it can bring to market, he constructs indexes of music quality based on critics' best-of lists, airplay, and sales that show no evidence of a decline in music quality since Napster.

Waldfogel's first index of music quality is based on critics' retrospective lists of the best music (for example, "best of the decade"). It encompasses 88 different rankings from the United States, England, Canada, and Ireland, and covers more than 16,000 musical works from 1960 to 2007. Statistically combining information from these sources results in an overall quality index that rises between 1960 and 1970, declines through the 1980s, rises again in the mid-1990s, declines in the latter half of the 1990s, and is stable for the period after 2000. Waldfogel concludes that although the index was falling prior to the appearance of Napster, it is stable after 2000 and thus shows no evidence of a decline in quality.

His second and third indexes are derived from data on radio airplay and sales of music. Music is aired on radio less, and sells less, as it gets older; but if a vintage is better, it will receive more sales or airplay after accounting for such depreciation. Using data on the frequency with which songs originally released as early as 1960 were aired on the radio from 2004 to 2008, Waldfogel constructs an airplay-based vintage quality index suggesting that music quality rose from 1960 to 1970, fell until at least 1985, and rose substantially after 1999. The analogous sales-based index is derived from Recording Industry Association of America Gold (sales greater than 500,000 copies) and Platinum (sales greater than one million copies) certifications. The sales-based index echoes the result of other indexes: it rises from 1960 to 1970, falls to the 1980s, and then rises sharply after 1999.

Based on the movements of these three indexes over time, Waldfogel concludes that "the quality of new music has not fallen since Napster." The post-Napster flow of product appears to be as strong as or stronger than it was before Napster, with independent labels accounting for a growing share of successful albums. Although it is impossible to determine whether creative output is as high as it would have been without Napster, the evidence does not suggest that innovations in digital technology, and associated changes in effective copyright protection, reduced the quality or quantity of new music.

So the effects of technological changes in the music industry may not be as the industry would have us believe.

Odd things you read

I've been reading parts of Roger Backhouse's book "The Ordinary Business of Life: A history of economics from the ancient world to the twenty-first century". From what I've read thus far the book is, by and large, a good read for the general reader with an interest in the history of economic thought. But every so often you come across something strange. For example at one point Backhouse writes,

Politically, the Austrians were conservatives [...].

How you can conclude that economists like Mises, Hayek or Rothbard were conservatives I'm not sure. Mises, for example, wrote a book on "Liberalism: The Classical Tradition" while Hayek wrote a very famous essay on "Why I'm Not a Conservative". All this seems very non-conservative to me.

Later Backhouse writes,

The term 'transaction costs' was first used by Marschak in 1950, but the idea has a long history.

Actually the term was used at least 10 years before Marschak. Tibor de Scitovszky in an article - A Study of Interest and Capital - published in the journal Economica in 1940 wrote,

One reason must be liquidity preference, another, perhaps equally important one, seems to be the high transaction costs (brokerage charges, stamp duties, commissions, etc.) on long-term securities. (Emphasis added.).

The idea of transaction costs or frictions was explained by John Hicks in 1935,

The most obvious sort of friction, and undoubtedly one of the most important, is the cost of transferring assets from one form to another

Backhouse also writes that

Transaction costs are the costs of transferring ownership from one person to another.

and

Coase pointed out that activities could be organized in two ways. One is through the market. The other is by management within the firm. Both methods involve transaction costs, but the costs are different.

If the costs are different then I would think one of them isn't a transaction cost. In fact I would interpret Coase as saying only the market costs are transactions costs. In his 1937 paper "The Nature of the Firm" Coase attributed the existence of the firm to the cost of using the price mechanism and Coase's point about about firms is that they suppress the price mechanism. Costs inside a firm are management costs or some such thing.

Related, if transaction costs are defined as the costs of transferring ownership - which seems reasonable - then how can costs within a firm be transaction costs? Ownership isn't transferred within a firm.

Views change with time, even in economics

In his classic book "A History of Economic Analysis" Joseph Schumpeter argued that there was one general equilibrium system and Walras had given it to us.

As far as pure theory is concerned, Walras is in my opinion the greatest of all economists. His system of economic equilibrium [...] is the only work by an economist that will stand comparison with the achievements of theoretical physics. Compared with it, most of the theoretical writings of the period - and beyond - [...] look like boats beside a liner, like inadequate attempts to catch some particular aspect of Walrasian truth.

Compare this with the view, I have noted before, of a later great of the history of economic thought, Mark Blaug,

We may conclude that GE theory as such is a cul-de-sac: it as has no empirical content and never will have empirical content. Moreover, even as research programme in social mathematics, it must be condemned as an almost total failure.

The high watermark for Walrasian general equilibrium was arguably Debreu's 1959 book "Theory of Value" but is Till Duppe right when he says of Debreu’s influence today that,

[f]rom the point of view of today Debreu’s influence on the body of economics could be called zero, in that general equilibrium theory (GET) is the economics of yesterday.

The question all this raises in my mind is, If Blaug and Duppe are right then does this explain why so much of post-1970 economics, e.g. contract theory, game theory, theory of the firm, industrial organisation etc, turned its back on general equilibrium theory and has worked within a partial equilibrium framework?

For the case of contract theory Bernard Salanie has argued,

The theory of contracts has evolved from the failures of general equilibrium theory. In the 1970s several economists settled on a new way to study economic relationships. The idea was to turn away temporarily from general equilibrium models, whose description of the economy is consistent but not realistic enough, and to focus on necessarily partial models that take into account the full complexity of strategic interactions between privately informed agents in well-defined institutional settings.

What will the next great writer on the history of economic thought make of the 20th century giants of the field? As far as general equilibrium theory is concerned, Will he be a supporter of Schumpeter or Blaug?

EconTalk this week

David Rose of the University of Missouri, St. Louis and the author of The Moral Foundation of Economic Behavior talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the book and the role morality plays in prosperity. Rose argues that morality plays a crucial role in prosperity and economic development. Knowing that the people you trade with have a principled aversion to exploiting opportunities for cheating in dealing with others allows economic actors to trust one another. That in turn allows for the widespread specialization and interaction through markets with strangers that creates prosperity. In this conversation, Rose explores the nature of the principles that work best to engender trust. The conversation closes with a discussion of the current trend in morality in America and the implications for trust and prosperity.

The DIY economy

The standard neoclassical (Arrow-Debreu) approach to general equilibrium has been criticised by many economists, for many reasons. Mark Blaug, for example, has written,

We may conclude that GE theory as such is a cul-de-sac: it as has no empirical content and never will have empirical content. Moreover, even as research programme in social mathematics, it must be condemned as an almost total failure.

When looking at the production side of the model a common criticism made is that the model has not reason for the existence of firm. As Foss, Lando and Thomsen summarise it:

The pure analysis of the market institution leaves almost no room for the firm (Debreu 1959). Under the assumption of a perfect set of contingent markets, as well as certain other restrictive assumptions, the model describes how markets may produce efficient outcomes. The question how organizations should be structured does not arise, because market-contracting perfectly solves all incentive and coordination issues. By assumption, firm behaviour (profit maximization) is invariant to institutional form (e.g. ownership structure). The whole economy can operate efficiently as one great system of markets, in which autonomous agents enter into very elaborate contracts with each other. However, by treating the firm itself as a black box, where internal structure, contracts, etc. disappear from the picture, there are many other issues that the theory cannot address. For example, the theory does not tell us why firms exist.

Nicolai Foss uses a few less words to make this point when he notes

With perfect and costless contracting, it is hard to see room for anything resembling firms (even one-person firms), since consumers could contract directly with owners of factor services and wouldn't need the services of the intermediaries known as firms.

In other words the neoclassical model is DIY on steroids!!

Interestingly, in addition to the above comment on GE Mark Blaug notes that the fictional auctioneer famous from Walras's model of general equilibrium isn't in fact due to Walras.

[..] Walras never mentioned the concept of a fictional auctioneer announcing and changing prices until an equilibrium price is agreed upon - this is one of those historical myths that subsequent generations invented [..]

One wonders who invented the idea.

EconTalk this week

Nassim Taleb, author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about antifragility, the concept behind Taleb's next book, a work in progress. Taleb talks about how we can cope with our ignorance and uncertainty in a complex world. Topics covered include health, finance, political systems, the Fed, your career, Seneca, shame, heroism, and a few more.