Showing posts with label Oliver Hart. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oliver Hart. Show all posts

Friday, 2 February 2018

Zingales on Hart

At the 2018 ASSA meeting Luigi Zingales delivered a lecture honouring Oliver Hart, co-winner of the 2016 Nobel Prize for economics.

In part Zingales said,
In the 1970s, this question [the make-or-buy decision] started to receive attention in the so-called transaction-cost literature. The key contributions during that period were Alchian and Demsetz (1972), Williamson (1971 and 1975) and Klein, Crawford, and Alchian (1978). Alchian and Demsetz identified the unique nature of the firm in the team production and the associated cost of metering individual contributions to the collective output. This is the line of research the other Nobelist we are celebrating today, Bengt Holmstrhom, pursued. By contrast, Williamson and Klein, Crawford, and Alchian focused on the role of the firm in mitigating the cost of opportunism. Imagine a printing press owned and operated by someone different from the publisher. If alternative users have much lower valuations for the services of the printing press than the current user, there exists an appropriable quasi rent. Klein, Crawford, and Alchian conclude that “if an asset has a substantial portion of quasi rent which is strongly dependent upon some other particular asset, both assets will tend to be owned by one party.” They are quick to add that “this advantage of joint specialized assets … must of course be weighed against the cost of administering a broader range of assets within the firm.”

In these few lines there are all the key insights of the pre-Hart literature, but also all its limitations, among them:
  1. If integration has to do with joint specialized physical assets, to what extent does an employee “belong” to a firm? What makes an employee different from an independent contractor? Are Alchian and Demsetz right in claiming that “I can fire my grocer by stopping purchases from him”? (Not just a theoretical discussion, think about Uber.)
  2. What aspect of integration produces all these benefits? Why can’t they be achieved through long-term contracting?
  3. Can you have too much integration? Are the limits of the firm determined only by “administrative or bureaucratic costs” or can integration also be detrimental? Does communism not work only because of bureaucracy?
It is these limitations that Hart along with Sandy Grossman and John Moore sort to deal with.
The main source of these limitations is the lack of a formal model, the lack of a language to express clearly the driving forces. The work by Grossman and Hart and Hart and Moore answers all these questions.
  1. First of all, the emphasis moves from the specialization of physical assets to that of human capital. In this way, they are able to explain how a firm has “power” over its employees. When my colleague “fires” United Airlines, he does not deprive United employees of any asset they have specialized to. When the CEO of United fires a pilot, he does deprive her of assets (physical and organizational) she specialized to. A pilot (especially an older pilot) is more valuable inside United than outside of it. Thus, a specialized pilot will continue being employed by United. Nevertheless, United’s ability to control the pilot’s quasi-rent is the source of the power an employer has over its employee.
One of the many merits of Oliver’s contribution is to have brought back the concept of power inside economics. This is a concept pervasive in political science and sociology, and pervasive in Marxian economics, but completely absent from neoclassical economics. In fact, Oliver’s view of the firm is very reminiscent of the Marxian view, but where Marx sees exploitation, Oliver sees an efficient allocation.
  1. Having identified the source of power, Grossman and Hart help us understand why this can only stem from integration.
To cut this Gordian knot, Oliver and Sandy introduce a new concept: the “residual right of control,” i.e. the right to dispose of an asset in all the situations that have not been explicitly contracted out. They identify this residual right of control with ownership.
With regard to ownership being identified with residual rights of control it is interesting to note a footnote in the Grossman and Hart paper,
Richard Posner, whose opinion on the legal definition of ownership we solicited, has referred us to the following statement by Oliver Wendell Holmes (1881/1946, p. 246): "But what are the rights of ownership? They are substantially the same as those incident to possession. Within the limits prescribed by policy, the owner is allowed to exercise his natural powers over the subject-matter uninterfered with, and is more or less protected in excluding other people from such interference. The owner is allowed to exclude all, and is accountable to no one but him."
Zingales continues,
Of course, this opens the question of why some contingencies cannot be written in a contract, a question Oliver has spent a great deal of time on and a question I will return to momentarily, if time allows.

But if we accept that contracts are incomplete, then it is easy to see how the residual right of control can be used opportunistically to reduce the share of the surplus of other parties in a relationship.

This insight applies in all walks of life. For example, I just launched an economic podcast. In preparation for this event, I have spent a lot of time and effort. Much of this effort is specific to this particular podcast. So how does ownership of this podcast, which currently is in the hands of the University of Chicago, affect my incentives? Not only I, but most of the economics profession would not have a framework to think about this important question without the work of Oliver.

This is an inconsequential example, but it illustrates how rich the Grossman-Hart-Moore framework is in addressing a fundamental problem of entrepreneurs: how to allocate cash flow and control rights to maximize the commitment of all the key players to a new venture. I regularly teach this in my entrepreneurship class and I would not know how to frame this problem if it wasn’t for Grossman-Hart-Moore.

Note that—unlike Williamson—their results do not rely on friction in the renegotiation process. Grossman-Hart-Moore assume costless renegotiation ex post. Still, ownership (and the residual right of control it confers) matters because of the way it affects the out-of-equilibrium outside option and, through it, the share of ex post surplus each party appropriates. This share impacts not only the distribution of the quasi-rents, but also the ex ante incentives to make firm-specific investments, and thus efficiency itself.
  1. Having identified how integration works, Grossman-Hart-Moore can also explain the costs of integration. Since control is zero-sum, control given to party A takes control away from party B, reducing B’s incentives to make firm-specific investments. Thus, integrating a supplier reduces the incentive of the supplier to invest in his human capital. As a result, who should own what, the famous question of the boundaries of the firm, finds a very simple answer: it depends upon the relative importance of the contribution to the various parties.
Hart's work has affected many areas of economics.
Before Oliver finance scholars had focused on the allocation of cash flow rights. Yet, it was difficult to explain why capital structure mattered purely on the basis of cash flow right allocation, since all the effects produced by financing decisions could be undone by contracts. It is thanks to Oliver’s model that researchers could start thinking in terms of control allocation: capital structure mattered because it provides a contingent way to allocate control. In other words, Grossman-Hart-Moore changed the way corporate finance theory was done and did so in an irreversible way.

Unlike poets who only allow people to express their feelings, economic theorists also provide a framework for empirical researchers to study new phenomena. The work of Kaplan and Stromberg (2003) on the allocation of control rights in venture capital contracts or the work of Michael Roberts and Amir Sufi on debt covenants would be inconceivable without Oliver’s work.

Similarly, it is very difficult to understand corporate governance without Oliver’s contribution. The famous survey by Shleifer and Vishny (1997) that incorporates Oliver’s work on control rights, changed the literature on corporate governance. Without Oliver’s seminal contribution that change would not have taken place.

While finance has been the main area of application of ICT, there is hardly a field in economics that has not been impacted. One of the first applications, pioneered by Oliver himself with Tirole, is to industrial organization. ICT provides a way to rationalize the famous market foreclosure argument. Another natural area of application is to the costs and benefits of public ownership. This also was pioneered by Oliver with Shleifer and Vishny in the famous prison paper. It is also not surprising that ICT has been applied to internal organization (Aghion) and to international trade (Antras). Finally, issues of power and contract incompleteness are essential to political economy, and in fact in recent years we have seen a proliferation of applications in this direction.

There are a lot of other areas where Oliver’s theory of incomplete contracts can be profitably applied, as family economics. There is hardly a contract that is more incomplete than marriage and one where relationship specific investments (like the children) are more important.

Oliver is a role model not only for his intellectual achievements, but also for the integrity with which he has achieved them. For more than a decade he argues back and forth with two other Nobelist Erik Maskin and Jean Tirole abut the foundations of his theory of incomplete contract. In spite of the enormous amount of reputation he had a stake, he had the courage to recognize that Maskin and Tirole’s critiques were valid and he went back to the drawing board and produced with John Moore a new foundation of incomplete contracts [this work is the 'reference point' approach to incomplete contracts].
The incomplete contracts theory has been one of the major theoretical advances in economics in the last 30 years and Hart's role in it fully justifies the award of the Nobel Prize.

Wednesday, 3 May 2017

Oliver Hart, incomplete contracts and control

From the 2017 Royal Economic Society Conference comes this video of the talk by Oliver Hart, the Winner of the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economics, which is an extended version of his Prize Lecture.


Watch it and actually learn something worth learning!! An usual thing in economics these days. And no, not a regression anywhere.

Monday, 12 December 2016

Nobel Prize lectures in economic sciences for 2016

From Nobelprize.org:

Oliver Hart: Incomplete Contracts and Control

Oliver Hart delivered his Prize Lecture on 8 December 2016 at the Aula Magna, Stockholm University.


Bengt Holmström: Pay for Performance and Beyond

Bengt Holmström delivered his Prize Lecture on 8 December 2016 at the Aula Magna, Stockholm University.

Sunday, 11 December 2016

Oliver Hart on the good and bad in economics

From Hart's speech at the Nobel Banquet, 10 December 2016
After 47 years working in the area, I have learned that economics is both more and less powerful than people think. It is more powerful because it provides an indispensable set of tools for understanding human behavior. Whether we are talking about an individual's decision about how much education to get, a firm's decision about how much to invest, or a society's decision about how best to tackle global warming, economics can provide an invaluable perspective. In the context of the current prize my co-laureate and I have shown that economics can throw light on whether teachers should be rewarded according to their students' test scores; or whether prisons should be run by private companies or by the government.

This is the good news about economics. It can help us to understand many things. The bad news is that it is not the whole story. For understanding many questions other things matter too: psychology, history, sociology, politics. This is the sense in which economics is less powerful than people think. It provides only part of the answer.
And I would add that it is only part of the answer but it is the part that seems to be ignored in those very cases where it is most powerful and useful.

Saturday, 10 December 2016

Oliver Hart interview

Guy Rolnik interviews this year's Nobel Prize in Economics co-winner Professor Oliver Hart about incomplete contracts and the theory of the firm.

Half an hour well spent.

Tuesday, 1 November 2016

Kevin Bryan on Oliver Hart and the nature of the firm

Kevin Bryan writes at VoxEU.org on Oliver Hart's contribution to the theory of the firm.

Bryan writes,
Grossman and Hart (1986) instead argue that the distinction that really makes a firm a firm is that it owns assets. Why does ownership matter? They retain the idea that contracts may be incomplete – at some point, I will disagree with my suppliers, or my workers, or my branch manager, about what should be done, either because a state of the world has arrived not covered by our contract, or because it is in our first-best mutual interest to renegotiate that contract.

They retain the idea that there are relationship-specific rents, so I care about maintaining this particular relationship. But rather than rely on transaction costs, they simply point out that the owner of the asset is in a much better bargaining position when this disagreement occurs. Therefore, the owner of the asset will get a bigger percentage of rents after renegotiation. Hence the person who owns an asset should be the one whose incentive to improve the value of the asset is most sensitive to that future split of rents.

Baker and Hubbard (2004) provide a nice empirical example: when on-board computers to monitor how long-haul trucks were driven began to diffuse, ownership of those trucks shifted from owner-operators to trucking firms. Before the computer, if the trucking firm owns the truck, it is hard to contract on how hard the truck will be driven or how poorly it will be treated by the driver. If the driver owns the truck, it is hard to contract on how much effort the trucking firm dispatcher will exert ensuring the truck isn’t sitting empty for days, or following a particularly efficient route.

The computer solves the first problem, meaning that only the trucking firm is taking actions relevant to the joint relationship that are highly likely to be affected by whether they own the truck or not. In Grossman and Hart’s ‘residual control rights’ theory, then, the introduction of the computer should mean the truck ought, post-computer, be owned by the trucking firm. If these residual control rights are unimportant – there is no relationship-specific rent and no incompleteness in contracting – then the ability to shop around for the best relationship is more valuable than the control rights provided by asset ownership.

Hart and Moore (1990) extend this basic model to the case where there are many assets and many firms, suggesting critically that sole ownership of assets that are highly complementary in production is optimal. Asset ownership affects outside options when the contract is incomplete by changing bargaining power, and splitting ownership of complementary assets gives multiple agents weak bargaining power and hence little incentive to invest in maintaining the quality of, or improving, the assets. Hart et al. (1997) provide a great example of residual control rights applied to the question of why governments should run prisons but not garbage collection.
As an aside Bryan writes,
[...] note the role that bargaining power plays in all of Hart’s theories. We do not have a ‘perfect’ – in a sense that can be made formal – model of bargaining, and Hart tends to use bargaining solutions from cooperative game theory like the Shapley value. After Lloyd Shapley’s Nobel prize alongside Alvin Roth in 2012, this makes multiple prizes heavily influenced by cooperative games applied to unexpected problems. Perhaps the theory of cooperative games ought still be taught with vigour in PhD programmes.
I have to agree with Bryan here, coopertive game theory should be taught to all students. The guy that taught me game theory in my honours degree covered cooperative as well as non-cooperative game theory and the cooperative stuff was interesting with more applied applications than you would think. One of my first publications was on the application of cooperative game theory to cost allocation problems. How do you allocate fixed ad joint costs of a project to those agents undertaking the project? Cooperative game theory gives some nice solution to this problem. It also comes in handy when dealing with bargaining problems like those utilised in Hart's work. The two most commonly use solutions concepts are the Nash bargaining solution and the Shapley Value.

Bryan continues by commenting on Hart's more recent work on the reference point approach to the firm,
[...] he has been primarily working on theories which depend on reference points, a behavioural idea that when disagreements occur between parties, the ex ante contracts are useful because they suggest ‘fair’ divisions of rent, and induce shading and other destructive actions when those divisions are not given. These behavioural agents may very well disagree about what the ex ante contract means for ‘fairness’ ex post.

The primary result is that flexible contracts (for example, contracts that deliberately leave lots of incompleteness) can adjust easily to changes in the world but will induce spiteful shading by at least one agent, while rigid contracts do not permit this shading but do cause parties to pursue suboptimal actions in some states of the world.

This perspective has been applied by Hart to many questions over the past decade, such as why it can be credible to delegate decision-making authority to agents: if you try to seize it back, the agent will feel aggrieved and will shade effort (Hart and Holmström 2010). These responses are hard, or perhaps impossible, to justify when agents are perfectly rational, and of course the Maskin-Tirole critique would apply if agents were purely rational.

So where does all this leave us concerning the initial problem of why firms exist in a sea of decentralised markets? We have many clever ideas, suitable for particular contexts, but still do not have a believable, logically ironclad theory.

A perfect theory of the firm would need to be able to explain why firms are the size they are, why they own what they do, why they are organised as they are, why they persist over time, and why inter-firm incentives look the way they do. It almost certainly would need its mechanisms to work if we assumed all agents were highly, or perfectly, rational – foolishness is not a good justification for institutions employed by millions of organisations.

Since patterns of asset ownership are fundamental, it needs to go well beyond the type of hand-waving that makes up many ‘resource’ type theories. (Firms exist because they create a corporate culture! Firms exist because some firms just are better at doing X and can’t be replicated! These are outcomes, not explanations.)
Byran is correct when he says we have, as yet, no "believable, logically ironclad theory". As I note in Walker (2016: 160)
While the post-1970 theory of the firm literature has began the task of developing a genuine understanding of the firm, and closely related issues, it has yet to coalesce around one model or even one group of models. Even within the contemporary mainstream there are a number of competing models, to say nothing of those we could add into the mix if we were to consider the heterodox literature.

As Bylund (2016: 1–2) explains,
[...] there are several notable theories that each provide a different explanation and rationale for the business firm. [...] [T]here are several different definitions of what the firm supposedly is. [...] But each one must necessarily be incomplete, since it doesn’t capture all of what the other definitions capture.
One can be forgiven for thinking that the current situation with regard to the modelling of the firm is much like a group of blind men trying to describe an elephant, each man can tell you about the part he can feel while remaining unaware of the rest of the animal. Each of the current theories tells us something about the firm, but none can tell us everything.
But if we had all the answers there would be no fun (or point) in working in the area.

Refs.:
  • Baker, G, and T Hubbard (2004), ‘Contractibility and Asset Ownership: On-board Computers and Governance in US Trucking’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(4): 1443-79.
  • Bylund, Per L. (2016). The Problem of Production: A New Theory of the Firm, London: Routledge.
  • Grossman, S, and O Hart (1986), ‘The Costs and Benefits of Ownership: A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration’, Journal of Political Economy 94(4): 691-719.
  • Hart, O, and B Holmström (2010), ‘A Theory of Firm Scope’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 125(2): 483-513.
  • Hart, O, and J Moore (1990) ‘Property Rights and the Nature of the Firm’, Journal of Political Economy 98(6): 1119-58.

Sunday, 30 October 2016

Maija Halonen-Akatwijuka on "Oliver Hart, Nobel laureate"

Maija Halonen-Akatwijuka writes on Oliver Hart, Nobel laureate at VoxEU.org. As is well known by now Oliver Hart has been jointly awarded the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Bengt Holmstrom "for their contributions to contract theory". Halonen-Akatwijuka looks at Hart's contribution to contract theory. In particular incomplete contracts.

Halonen-Akatwijuka opens her discussion by noting,
The cornerstone of Hart’s contribution to incomplete contracts theory is his 1986 paper with Sandy Grossman on the costs and benefits of ownership. In this paper, they develop the formal theory of incomplete contracts and with it introduce the notions of control and power that have had great impact in many fields beyond the theory of the firm (see Aghion et al 2016).

Even in market economies, a significant proportion of transactions do not take place in the market but within firms. Grossman and Hart (1986) build on the foundations laid by previous Nobel laureates Ronald Coase and Oliver Williamson in asking what determines whether a transaction occurs inside the firm or in the market – that is, whether there is vertical integration or non-integration.

Coase’s (1937) answer was that both market and internal transactions have their costs and they are organised so that the transaction costs are minimised. Williamson (1975, 1985) emphasised a particular cost of transacting in the market: the hold-up problem. When a productive relationship requires an investment that has much lower value in other uses, the investor may only make the investment if the relationship is within the firm, since in the market, such relationship-specific investment is vulnerable to expropriation in bargaining when contracts are incomplete. Williamson was less clear about the costs of integration, which, in his view, related to bureaucratic decision-making.

Grossman and Hart (1986) formalised the analysis of the boundaries of the firm and provided a rationale not just for the benefits but also for the costs of vertical integration. When contracts are incomplete, a trading relationship can be governed by allocating the control rights – or power – to a party. Ownership of an asset brings with it control rights as the owner has the right to refuse to trade with a supplier/buyer (unless a prior contract is in place). The question then arises of not just whether the assets should be integrated or not, but also who should be the owner.

Ownership gives power to an agent in the sense that his default payoff is increased. If buyer B owns the asset that supplier S works with — and therefore S becomes B’s employee — B can get a higher share of the surplus in bargaining. The benefit of integration is that B’s incentives in relationship-specific investments are stronger. But the hold-up problem does not disappear inside the firm as he still needs to bargain with his employee to complete the production.

The cost of integration is the other side of the coin: S as an employee has weaker incentives than as an independent supplier. Given this trade-off, if one of the parties is a key investor, then it is optimal for him to become the owner of the integrated firm. That guarantees the best incentives for the key investment while the cost of weaker incentives for the party with less important investment is not significant.

Hart’s 1990 paper with John Moore developed the theory for a multi-asset and multi-party setting. Ownership – or power – is distributed among the parties to maximise their investment incentives. Hart and Moore show that complementarities between the assets and the parties have important implications. If the assets are so complementary that they are productive only when used together, they should have a single owner. Separating such complementary assets does not give power to anybody, while when the assets have a single owner, the owner has power and improved incentives.
A point to note here is that this ideas of having a single owner for complementary assets helps explain by we most often see control rights and income right being bundled together. Income rights give people an incentive to use assets efficiently while control rights give them the ability to do so. Income and control rights are complementary.
Furthermore, if there are such strong complementarities between an asset and a party that the asset is productive only with that party, then this indispensable party should own the asset. Ownership of the asset would not give power to anybody else and the incentive effect would be wasted.

This theory of the firm is now known as Grossman-Hart-Moore (GHM) property rights theory. It has been applied in various fields, including corporate finance, public economics, political economy and international trade.
I would, of course, recommend reading pages 98-107 of Walker (2016) for a brief introduction to the Grossman-Hart-Moore approach to the theory of the firm.

One of the applications of the Grossman-Hart-Moore theory that Hart has written on is to privatisation. The reason for this application is that there is a close relationship between the theory of the firm and the theory of privatisation. As Hart himself has written,
Let me begin by discussing the very close parallel between the theory of the firm and the theory of privatisation. In the vertical integration literature one considers two firms,A and B. A might be a car manufacturer and B might supply car-body parts. Suppose that there is some reason for A and B to have a long-term relationship (e.g., A or B must make a relationship-specific investment). Then there are two principal ways in which this relationship can be conducted. A and B can have an arms-length contract, but remain as independent firms; or A and B can merge and carry out the transaction within a single firm. The analogous question in the privatisation literature is the following. Suppose A represents the government and B represents a firm supplying the government or society with some service. B could be an electricity company (supplying consumers) or a prison (incarcerating criminals).Then again, there are two principal ways in which this relationship can be conducted. A and B can have a contract, with B remaining as a private firm, or the government can buy (nationalise) B.
Also,
[...] the issues of vertical integration and privatisation have much more in common than not. Both are concerned with whether it is better to regulate a relationship via an arms-length contract or via a transfer of ownership.
Thus, we can think about the nationalisation/privatisation decision of the government in a similar way to the integration/spin-off decision of the private firm, conceptually both decisions are about determining the boundaries of an organisation.

Halonen-Akatwijuka points out that,
Hart’s 1997 paper with Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny applies the property rights theory to privatisation of tax-funded welfare services, such as schools, prisons and refuse collection. Government contracts with a service provider but the contract is incomplete, particularly regarding the quality of the service. The provider can invest in cost reduction but the owner has the control rights to decide whether the cost innovation will be implemented.

Under privatisation, the provider has the control rights and will implement cost innovation even if it damages the quality of the service. Since the provider gets the full benefit from cost-cutting and ignores the quality-reducing effect, his incentives for cost reduction are too strong.

Under public ownership, the provider needs government approval for any innovations, and therefore a quality-damaging innovation would not go ahead. This means that the provider will take into account the quality-reducing effect but has generally weak incentives to reduce costs.

Privatisation is therefore not desirable for services where cost reduction can damage quality. Hart and his co-authors argue that prisons meet this condition reasonably well. Federal authorities in the US are indeed ending the use of private prisons partly because of quality issues.

In contrast, privatisation works well for services where the quality-reducing effect is likely to be trivial, such as refuse collection. Finally, for some welfare services such as schools, competition can discipline quality-damaging cost-cutting, and therefore there is a reasonably valid case for privatisation.

When she turns to Hart's more recent work Halonen-Akatwijuka writes about what is now referred to as the "reference points" approach to contracts,
In recent work, Hart has introduced the theory of contracts as reference points (Hart and Moore 2008). The basic idea is that the role of a contract is to shape the parties’ expectations and to get them ‘on the same page’ to avoid future misunderstandings. Misunderstandings cause parties to feel aggrieved and lead to shading in ex post performance, causing deadweight losses.

The benefit of a rigid contract is that it fixes expectations, avoiding arguments. But it may not perform well when there is uncertainty. A flexible contract can adjust to the state of nature, but there is also room for arguments.
This approach has yet to get much attention in  economics textbooks, but see pages 113-117 of Walker (2016) for more.

Given this lack of discussion I will take a quick look the model given in Hart (2008) which presents a simple, intuitive, reference points model and applies it to the theory of the firm. What is presented below is a slightly modified version of Hart's model. I hope that you can tell the difference between the zero's and the theta's below.

Hart assumes that a seller, S, can provide a good, costing 10, to a buyer, B, who is willing to pay 20. Let us assume that we are talking about a public lecture on some aspect of microeconomics which B is organising and which B wants S to give. A successful lecture is worth 20 to B and it costs 10 for S to give the lecture.

At this stage Hart ignores the fact that B could engage other economists or that S could give lectures elsewhere. While trade could proceed smoothly, it is also possible that it will not. We will assume that B and S each have some discretion over the ‘quality’ of performance. For example, S could give a witty, lively, entertaining lecture or a very boring one. B on the other hand could treat S well, give her a nice dinner and pay quickly, or treat her badly.

In the language of Hart and Moore (2008) each party is able to provide basic (perfunctory) or exemplary (consummate) performance. It is further assumed that only the basic (perfunctory) level of performance can be legally enforced: exemplary (consummate) performance is entirely discretionary. It is assumed that each party is more or less indifferent between providing each level of performance − exemplary performance costs only a little more than basic or may even be slightly more pleasurable − and will provide exemplary performance if they feel they are being 'well treated' but not if they feel they are being 'badly treated'. Cutting back on exemplary performance is called ‘shading’. Such behaviour cannot be observed or punished by an outsider. Shading hurts the other party.

Hart emphasises that each party will feel 'well treated' if they receive what they think they are entitled to; that a contract between the parties is a reference point for perceived entitlements; and that should there be no reference point, then entitlements can diverge, wildly in some cases.

To return to the example above. First, we will add a time line. The time line tells us that B and S will write a contract some months before the lecture is given, at date 0, rather than at the last minute, date 1. One reason for this is that each party has more options earlier on. In fact it is assumed that there is a competitive market for sellers, at date 0.

Assume, further, that although B and S sign a contract at date 0, they leave the question of how much B will pay S open until the night before the lecture, date 1. This may seem a bad idea, and later it will be shown that it is. If no price is specified, then any p between 10 and 20 is possible. What might each party feel entitled to?

Hart and Moore (2008) take the view that entitlements can diverge. S may feel that the whole success of the talk will be due to her giving it and thus she feels entitled to p = 20. On the other hand B may have a somewhat different view of S’s abilities and likely contribution and thus feel that S is worth much less, say, p = 10.

Even though they disagree as to what p should be, they are rational enough to arrive at a compromise, say p = 15. According to Hart and Moore (2008) each party will feel short-changed and therefore aggrieved. Since B is aggrieved by 5, (15-10), B shades to the point where S’s payoff falls by 5θ, where θ is the constant of proportionality. And since S is also aggrieved by 5, (20-15), S shades to the point where the payoff for B falls by 5θ.

The end result of this is that if S and B leave the determination of the price until the night before the lecture, there will be a deadweight loss of 10θ due to the shading activities of each party. This reduces the value of the relationship between S and B from 10 to 10−10θ = 10(1−θ).

Next Hart asks the question: Can anything be done to avoid this deadweight loss? His answer is yes. But first note an answer that doesn’t do the job. Ex post Coasian bargaining at date 1 doesn’t work. The reason is that shading is not contractible and thus an agreement not to shade is not enforceable. Or to put this another way, if B offers to pay S more to reduce her shading, say B offers to pay p = 16 to S rather than 15, then this will indeed reduce S’s shading, from 5θ to 4θ, since S will now feel less aggrieved, but it will also increase B’s shading from 5θ to 6θ, since he now feels more aggrieved. Total deadweight loss does not change, it remains at 10θ. However there is a simple solution; the parties just put the price in the contract at date 0. Since it has been assumed that the market for lectures is competitive at date 0, B will be able to hire S for a price p = 10. With this price specified in the contract, there is nothing for B and S to disagree about at date 1. The fact that B and S may disagree about the contribution that S makes to the success of the lecture no longer matters. B and S have agreed that B will pay S 10, and neither B nor S will be disappointed or aggrieved when that happens. Importantly, agreeing in advance, at date 0, to a payment of 10 eliminates ex post argument and aggrievement, and thus both parties will be willing to provide exemplary performance. Here we have the first best being achieved and zero deadweight losses as a result. This does raise an obvious question: What changes between dates 0 and 1? Why does a date 0 contract that fixes p avoid aggrievement, whereas a date 1 contract that fixes p does not? The crucial point here is the role of the ex ante market at date 0. This market gives an objective measure of what B and S bring to the relationship. Given the assumption of a competitive date 0 market, there are many sellers willing to supply at p = 10 and thus S accepts that she cannot expect to receive more than 10, while B understands that he can’t expect to pay less, as no one would be willing to give the lecture for less. Thus, neither party is aggrieved by p = 10. This gives us a model of the contractual relationship between B and S, but, as Hart explains, we need one further ingredient to create a theory of the firm.

Now let us add a little more realism by assuming that not all of the details of the lecture can be anticipated at date 0. To keep things simple we will assume that two different lectures can be given.

Lecture 1 - say, a theory of the firm lecture - is the same as above, with a value of 20 and costs of 10. Lecture 2 - say, a microeconometrics lecture - yields value of 14 and costs of 8. Note that lecture 1 is more efficient in that it generates a greater surplus - 10 v's 6. Assume that the lectures can not be specified in the date 0 contract, since thinking about econometrics is sooooo boring that no one can stay awake long enough to write the contract! At date 1, however, the choice between them becomes clear.

Now we have to compare two organisational forms: an employment contract and an independent contractor. First, let B and S fix the price of the good at date 0, at say 10, and let B and S agree at date 0 that S will be an independent contractor. This is, in other words, a market exchange between two separate economics agents. Independent contractor means here that S gets to pick which lecture to give.

Hart then asks, What will S do? Given that the price has been fixed by the date 0 contract, S will pick lecture 2, since it is cheaper for her. But note this is inefficient. B will be aggrieved because S didn’t choose lecture 1, which B feels entitled to; B is short-changed by 6 (20-14), and he will therefore shade enough to reduce S’s payoff by 6θ. Total surplus in this case will be 6 − 6θ.

The second organisation form to be considered is an employment contract. B and S agree at date 0 that S is an employee of B. This we take to mean that S will work for B at a fixed wage, again assume 10. B, being the employer, has the right to decide on which lecture is to be given. As the wage is fixed B will choose lecture 1, as this gives him the greater value. This is efficient. S will be aggrieved since lecture 2 wan’t chosen, but S’s aggrievement is only 2. This induces S to shade by enough to reduce B’s payoff by 2θ. Total surplus is therefore 10 − 2θ.

Under the conditions specified, the employment contract is better. This is true for two related reasons. First, the lecture matters more to B than to S. B will lose 20 − 14 = 6 if his favoured lecture is not chosen while S only loses 10 − 8 = 2 if her favoured lecture is not chosen. This means it is efficient for B to choose the lecture. Second, and related, S’s aggrievement is low since she doesn’t care very much.

Hart now changes the numbers. Keep lecture 1 as it is, but change lecture 2 so while it still yields 14, it now costs only 2. Lecture 2 is now the more efficient (12 v’s 10). Under employment, lecture 1 will be chosen, yielding a total surplus of 10−8θ. If S is an independent contractor, lecture 2 will be chosen resulting in a total surplus of 12 − 6θ.

What this suggests is that employment is good if the lecture matters more to B than to S, while independent contracting is good if the lecture matters more to S than to B.

Hart goes on to say,
[o]ne point worth emphasizing is that in neither of the above examples is the following contract optimal: to leave the choice of price and method until date 1, i.e. to rely on unconstrained Coasian bargaining. This would always yield the efficient method, but the aggrievement costs would be high. In [Table not shown] the parties would agree on method 1; however, since there are 10 dollars of surplus to argue over, shading costs equal 10θ: net surplus = 10(1 − θ), which is less than that obtained under the employment contract. In [Table 171.1] there are 12 dollars of surplus to argue over and net surplus = 12(1 − θ), which is less than that obtained under independent contracting.
Clearly the examples above are toy ones, but Hart argues they contain the basic ingredients of a theory of the firm in that they consider the choice between carrying out a transaction in the market, using an independent contractor, and 'inside the firm', via an employment contract. This was the trade-off at the heart of Coase (1937).

Halonen-Akatwijuka also notes that this reference point theory shifts the focus from ex ante investment incentives, as in the Grossman-Hart-Morre theory, to ex post inefficiencies caused by shading and, importantly, this approach is not subject to the Maskin and Tirole (1999) critique (see pages 110-113 of Walker (2016) for more on the critique and why it is a problem for the Grossman-Hart-Moore theory).

The basic ingredients of the reference point approach to contracts have been applied to the theory of the firm more fully in papers by Hart and Moore (2007), Hart (2009) and Hart and Holmstrom (2010). For more on these papers see Walker (2013).

Halonen-Akatwijuka and Hart (2016) have also applied the contracts as reference point approach continuing contracts.

Refs.
  • Aghion, P, M Dewatripont, P Legros and L Zingales (eds) (2016), The Impact of Incomplete Contracts on Economics, Oxford University Press.
  • Coase, Ronald Harry (1937). ‘The Nature of the Firm’, Economica, n.s. 4(16) November: 386–405.
  • Grossman, Sanford J. and Oliver D. Hart (1986). ‘The Costs and Benefits of Ownership: A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration’, Journal of Political Economy, 94(4): 691–719.
  • Halonen-Akatwijuka, M and O Hart (2016), ‘Continuing Contracts’, mimeo.
  • Hart, Oliver D. (2008). ‘Economica Coase Lecture: Reference Points and the Theory of the Firm’, Economica, 75(299) August: 404–11.
  • Hart, Oliver D. (2009). ‘Hold-up, Asset Ownership, and Reference Points’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(1) February: 267–300.
  • Hart, Oliver D. and Bengt Holmstrom (2010). ‘A Theory of Firm Scope’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(2) May: 483–513.
  • Hart, Oliver D. and John Moore (1990). ‘Property Rights and the Nature of the Firm’, Journal of Political Economy, 98(6): 1119–58.
  • Hart, Oliver D. and John Moore (2007). ‘Incomplete Contracts and Ownership: Some New Thoughts, American Economic Review, 97(2) May: 182–6.
  • Hart, Oliver D. and John Moore (2008). ‘Contracts as Reference Points’ Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(1) February: 1–48.
  • Hart, O, A Shleifer and R Vishny (1997), ‘The Proper Scope of Government: Theory and an Application to Prisons’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 112(4): 1127-61.
  • Walker, Paul (2013). ‘The ‘Reference Point’ Approach to the Theory of the Firm: An Introduction’, Journal of Economic Surveys, 27(4) September: 670–95.
  • Williamson, Oliver (1975), Markets and Hierarchies, Free Press.
  • Williamson, Oliver (1985), The Economic Institutions of Capitalism, Free Press.

Wednesday, 12 October 2016

Hart and/or Holmstrom and the theory of the firm.

One part of the contribution of Hart and Holmstrom that has not been emphasised in other coverage of the Nobel award is their huge contribution to the theory of the firm, both separately and together. I wish to briefly cover this area. In doing so I draw on material from The Theory of the Firm: An Overview of the Economic Mainstream. See also Walker (2015).

One grouping in the literature on the firm is referred to as the ‘firm as a solution to moral hazard in teams approach’. This is an area where Holmstrom has been active. In a paper, Holmstrom (1982), he looks looks at the incentive problems of teams and identifies possible solutions. Holmstrom assumes that the members of the team each take actions which are unobservable to the monitor but the overall result of the combined actions is observable. What Holmstrom shows is that it is only under very restrictive assumptions that the monitor can ensure that efficient effort levels will be provided by each team member. The monitor can do this by designing a sophisticated incentive scheme. But Holmstrom shows that given unobservable effort levels, the requirements for the incentive scheme to be a Nash equilibrium, to balance the budget and to be Pareto optimal, cannot be met together. More specifically, a budget-balancing incentive scheme cannot reconcile the Nash equilibrium requirement and Pareto optimality because each team member will equalise the costs and benefits of extra effort; that is, if the team revenue is increased by the efforts of a single member, then that member should receive that revenue to ensure that they are properly motivated. But as the monitor only knows that team revenue has increased and not the effort levels of each individual member, then all members of the team would have to each receive the extra revenue to ensure that the hardworking member is rewarded for his or her efforts. But this will, obviously,violate the balanced budget condition. This suggests that there is an advantage, in terms of incentives, in the team not having to balance their budget.

Another group in the literature is the ‘firms as an incentive system view’. This approach to the theory of the firm was developed by Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991, 1994), Holmstrom and Tirole (1991) and Holmstrom (1999). In their view the firm is characterised by a number of factors: (1) the employees do not own the non-human assets of the firm; (2) the employees are subject to a ‘low-powered incentive scheme’; and (3) the employer has authority over the employee.

Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991) make two observations. First, they note that there are a number of ways that an employee can spend their time, many of which can be of value to an employer. But if these multiple activities compete for the worker’s attention, then the incentives offered for each of the activities must be comparable. Otherwise, the employee will put most effort into those things that are most well compensated and put less effort into the others activities. The second observation relates to the provision of strong incentives to a risk-averse employee. Providing strong financial incentives is costly because it loads extra risk into the worker’s pay. In addition, the cost is greater the more difficult it is to measure performance. This means that, other things being equal, tasks where performance is hard to measure should not be given as intense incentives as ones that are more accurately observed. But having low-powered incentives means that the employer needs to be able to exercise authority over the use of the employee’s time, since the employee will not have the proper incentives to be productive.

This logic suggests that, conversely, an independent contractor should face the opposite combination of instruments. The choice between having an employee or using an independent contractor depends on the ability of the principal to measure each dimension of the agent’s contribution. Thus, in the Holmstrom and Milgrom approach, measurability of performance is one important determinant of the boundaries of the firm. In addition their approach incorporates the importance of the allocation of property rights to the physical assets in determining incentives via determination of bargaining positions as is the case with the Williamson and Grossman-Hart-Moore approaches.

Hart enters our story with the  'firm as an ownership unit' approach to the firm. This approach is more commonly called the property rights theory or incomplete contracts theory of the firm. Early contributions to this approach include Grossman and Hart (1986,1987), Hart and Moore (1990) and Hart (1995).

The central idea in the property rights approach is that as contracts are incomplete the allocation of control rights affects the incentives that people face, and thus their behaviour and the allocation of resources.This theory defines ownership of an asset as the possession of the residual control rights
over that asset. A firm is defined as a collection of jointly-owned (non-human) assets. This means, for example, that the distinction between an independent contractor and an employee turns on who owns the non-human assets with which the agent works. An independent contractor owns his own 'tools' while an employee does not.

But, how and why does ownership matter? The answer is that in a world of incomplete contracts, ownership (i.e. having residual control rights) can serve as a source of power. Given that incomplete contracts contain gaps (or ambiguities) the question arises of who gets to make decisions in these non-contracted for situations? For the property rights theory, it is the owner. This matters since if there are two separate firms, A and B say, then the management of each firm can make decisions for their firm in the uncontracted for situations. If, on the other hand, A was to take over B then A’s management could make decisions for both A and B in the uncontracted for cases. To see the implications of this imagine that B supplies A with an input for A’s production process. If A and B are separate firms then B’s management could threaten to withdraw both its assets and its own labour if the firms cannot, say, agree on the terms for an increase in the supply of the input. If A owns B then B can only threaten to withhold its labour. The latter threat is normally weaker than the former. Such differences in power will effect the distribution of surplus generated by the relationship between A and B. If the firms are separate, then A may have to pay a lot to induce B to supply the increased level of inputs whereas if A owns B, then it can enforce the supply at a much lower cost since B’s management has a reduced threat, and thus, bargaining power.

Determining the boundaries of the firm requires us to balance the advantages of integration against its disadvantages. The benefit of integration is that the acquiring firm’s, A above, incentives to make relationship-specific investments is stronger because it now has greater residual control rights and thus can command a larger share of the ex post surplus created by such investments.The disadvantage of integration is that the incentives of the acquired firm, B, to make relationship-specific investments is reduced since they now have fewer residual controls rights and thus are able to capture less of the ex post surplus that their investments creates. To put this in employee/independent contractor terms, the optimal size of a firm trades off the fact that hiring an employee means hiring someone who lacks optimal incentives since they risk being held up by the firm because they can be fired, and thereby separated from the assets they need to be productive, versus using an independent contractor who could hold-up the firm by threatening to quit the relationship and taking his assets with him.

An implication of this is that if a non-contractible, specific to a particular set of assets, investment is undertaken then a non-owner risks being held-up by the owner. Thus,the property rights theory would say that whoever makes the most important, non-contractible,asset-specific investment should be the owner of the asset.and a larger share of the ex post surplus created by such investments.

Another approach in which Hart is a major contributor is the 'the reference point approach' to the firm.

Hart (2008) presents a simple reference points model and applies it to the theory of the firm. What is presented below is a slightly modified version of Hart's model. I hope that you can tell the difference between the zero's and the theta's below. Hart assumes that a seller, S, can provide a good, costing 10, to a buyer, B, who is willing to pay 20. Let us assume that we are talking about a public lecture on some aspect of microeconomics which B is organising and which B wants S to give. A successful lecture is worth 20 to B and it costs 10 for S to give the lecture.

At this stage Hart ignores the fact that B could engage other economists or that S could give lectures elsewhere. While trade could proceed smoothly, it is also possible that it will not. We will assume that B and S each have some discretion over the ‘quality’ of performance. For example, S could give a witty, lively, entertaining lecture or a very boring one. B on the other hand could treat S well, give her a nice dinner and pay quickly, or treat her badly.

In the language of Hart and Moore (2008) each party is able to provide basic (perfunctory) or exemplary (consummate) performance. It is further assumed that only the basic (perfunctory) level of performance can be legally enforced: exemplary (consummate) performance is entirely discretionary. It is assumed that each party is more or less indifferent between providing each level of performance − exemplary performance costs only a little more than basic or may even be slightly more pleasurable − and will provide exemplary performance if they feel they are being 'well treated' but not if they feel they are being 'badly treated'. Cutting back on exemplary performance is called ‘shading’. Such behaviour cannot be observed or punished by an outsider. Shading hurts the other party.

Hart emphasises that each party will feel 'well treated' if they receive what they think they are entitled to; that a contract between the parties is a reference point for perceived entitlements; and that should there be no reference point, then entitlements can diverge, wildly in some cases.

To return to the example above. First, we will add a time line. The time line tells us that B and S will write a contract some months before the lecture is given, at date 0, rather than at the last minute, date 1. One reason for this is that each party has more options earlier on. In fact it is assumed that there is a competitive market for sellers, at date 0.

Assume, further, that although B and S sign a contract at date 0, they leave the question of how much B will pay S open until the night before the lecture, date 1. This may seem a bad idea, and later it will be shown that it is. If no price is specified, then any p between 10 and 20 is possible. What might each party feel entitled to?

Hart and Moore (2008) take the view that entitlements can diverge. S may feel that the whole success of the talk will be due to her giving it and thus she feels entitled to p = 20. On the other hand B may have a somewhat different view of S’s abilities and likely contribution and thus feel that S is worth much less, say, p = 10.

Even though they disagree as to what p should be, they are rational enough to arrive at a compromise, say p = 15. According to Hart and Moore (2008) each party will feel short-changed and therefore aggrieved. Since B is aggrieved by 5, (15-10), B shades to the point where S’s payoff falls by 5θ, where θ is the constant of proportionality. And since S is also aggrieved by 5, (20-15), S shades to the point where the payoff for B falls by 5θ.

The end result of this is that if S and B leave the determination of the price until the night before the lecture, there will be a deadweight loss of 10θ due to the shading activities of each party. This reduces the value of the relationship between S and B from 10 to 10−10θ = 10(1−θ).

Next Hart asks the question: Can anything be done to avoid this deadweight loss? His answer is yes. But first note an answer that doesn’t do the job. Ex post Coasian bargaining at date 1 doesn’t work. The reason is that shading is not contractible and thus an agreement not to shade is not enforceable. Or to put this another way, if B offers to pay S more to reduce her shading, say B offers to pay p = 16 to S rather than 15, then this will indeed reduce S’s shading, from 5θ to 4θ, since S will now feel less aggrieved, but it will also increase B’s shading from 5θ to 6θ, since he now feels more aggrieved. Total deadweight loss does not change, it remains at 10θ. However there is a simple solution; the parties just put the price in the contract at date 0. Since it has been assumed that the market for lectures is competitive at date 0, B will be able to hire S for a price p = 10. With this price specified in the contract, there is nothing for B and S to disagree about at date 1. The fact that B and S may disagree about the contribution that S makes to the success of the lecture no longer matters. B and S have agreed that B will pay S 10, and neither B nor S will be disappointed or aggrieved when that happens. Importantly, agreeing in advance, at date 0, to a payment of 10 eliminates ex post argument and aggrievement, and thus both parties will be willing to provide exemplary performance. Here we have the first best being achieved and zero deadweight losses as a result. This does raise an obvious question: What changes between dates 0 and 1? Why does a date 0 contract that fixes p avoid aggrievement, whereas a date 1 contract that fixes p does not? The crucial point here is the role of the ex ante market at date 0. This market gives an objective measure of what B and S bring to the relationship. Given the assumption of a competitive date 0 market, there are many sellers willing to supply at p = 10 and thus S accepts that she cannot expect to receive more than 10, while B understands that he can’t expect to pay less, as no one would be willing to give the lecture for less. Thus, neither party is aggrieved by p = 10. This gives us a model of the contractual relationship between B and S, but, as Hart explains, we need one further ingredient to create a theory of the firm.

Now let us add a little more realism by assuming that not all of the details of the lecture can be anticipated at date 0. To keep things simple we will assume that two different lectures can be given.

Lecture 1 - say, a theory of the firm lecture - is the same as above, with a value of 20 and costs of 10. Lecture 2 - say, a microeconometrics lecture - yields value of 14 and costs of 8. Note that lecture 1 is more efficient in that it generates a greater surplus - 10 v's 6. Assume that the lectures can not be specified in the date 0 contract, since thinking about econometrics is sooooo boring that no one can stay awake long enough to write the contract! At date 1, however, the choice between them becomes clear.

Now we have to compare two organisational forms: an employment contract and an independent contractor. First, let B and S fix the price of the good at date 0, at say 10, and let B and S agree at date 0 that S will be an independent contractor. This is, in other words, a market exchange between two separate economics agents. Independent contractor means here that S gets to pick which lecture to give.

Hart then asks, What will S do? Given that the price has been fixed by the date 0 contract, S will pick lecture 2, since it is cheaper for her. But note this is inefficient. B will be aggrieved because S didn’t choose lecture 1, which B feels entitled to; B is short-changed by 6 (20-14), and he will therefore shade enough to reduce S’s payoff by 6θ. Total surplus in this case will be 6 − 6θ.

The second organisation form to be considered is an employment contract. B and S agree at date 0 that S is an employee of B. This we take to mean that S will work for B at a fixed wage, again assume 10. B, being the employer, has the right to decide on which lecture is to be given. As the wage is fixed B will choose lecture 1, as this gives him the greater value. This is efficient. S will be aggrieved since lecture 2 wan’t chosen, but S’s aggrievement is only 2. This induces S to shade by enough to reduce B’s payoff by 2θ. Total surplus is therefore 10 − 2θ.

Under the conditions specified, the employment contract is better. This is true for two related reasons. First, the lecture matters more to B than to S. B will lose 20 − 14 = 6 if his favoured lecture is not chosen while S only loses 10 − 8 = 2 if her favoured lecture is not chosen. This means it is efficient for B to choose the lecture. Second, and related, S’s aggrievement is low since she doesn’t care very much.

Hart now changes the numbers. Keep lecture 1 as it is, but change lecture 2 so while it still yields 14, it now costs only 2. Lecture 2 is now the more efficient (12 v’s 10). Under employment, lecture 1 will be chosen, yielding a total surplus of 10−8θ. If S is an independent contractor, lecture 2 will be chosen resulting in a total surplus of 12 − 6θ.

What this suggests is that employment is good if the lecture matters more to B than to S, while independent contracting is good if the lecture matters more to S than to B.
Hart goes on to say,
“[o]ne point worth emphasizing is that in neither of the above examples is the following contract optimal: to leave the choice of price and method until date 1, i.e. to rely on unconstrained Coasian bargaining. This would always yield the efficient method, but the aggrievement costs would be high. In [Table not shown] the parties would agree on method 1; however, since there are 10 dollars of surplus to argue over, shading costs equal 10θ: net surplus = 10(1 − θ), which is less than that obtained under the employment contract. In [Table 171.1] there are 12 dollars of surplus to argue over and net surplus = 12(1 − θ), which is less than that obtained under independent contracting.” (Hart 2008: 409).
Clearly the examples above are toy ones, but Hart argues they contain the basic ingredients of a theory of the firm in that they consider the choice between carrying out a transaction in the market, using an independent contractor, and 'inside the firm', via an employment contract. This was the trade-off at the heart of Coase (1937).

The basic ingredients of the reference point approach to contracts have been applied to the theory of the firm more fully in papers by Hart and Moore (2007), Hart (2009) and Hart and Holmstrom (2010) - yes they get together!. For more on these papers see Walker (2013).

Refs.:

  • Coase, Ronald Harry (1937). ‘The Nature of the Firm’, Economica, n.s. 4(16) November: 386–405.
  • Grossman, Sanford J. and Oliver D. Hart (1986). ‘The Costs and Benefits of Ownership: A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration’, Journal of Political Economy, 94(4): 691–719.
  • Grossman, Sanford J. and Oliver D. Hart (1987). ‘Vertical Integration and the Distribution of Property Rights’. In Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka (eds.), Economic Policy in Theory and Practice (504–48), London: Macmillan Press.
  • Hart, Oliver D. (1995). Firms, Contracts, and Financial Structure, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Hart, Oliver D. (2008). ‘Economica Coase Lecture: Reference Points and the Theory of the Firm’, Economica, 75(299) August: 404–11.
  • Hart, Oliver D. (2009). ‘Hold-up, Asset Ownership, and Reference Points’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(1) February: 267–300.
  • Hart, Oliver D. and Bengt Holmström (2010). ‘A Theory of Firm Scope’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(2) May: 483–513.
  • Hart, Oliver D. and John Moore (1990). ‘Property Rights and the Nature of the Firm’, Journal of Political Economy, 98(6): 1119–58.
  • Hart, Oliver D. and John Moore (2007). ‘Incomplete Contracts and Ownership: Some New Thoughts, American Economic Review, 97(2) May: 182–6.
  • Hart, Oliver D. and John Moore (2008). ‘Contracts as Reference Points’ Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(1) February: 1–48.
  • Holmstrom, Bengt (1982). ‘Moral Hazard in Teams’, Bell Journal of Economics, 13(2) Autumn: 324–40.
  • Holmstom, Bengt (1999). ‘The Firm as a Subeconomy’, Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 15(1) April: 74-102
  • Holmstrom, Bengt and Paul Milgrom (1991). ‘Multitask Principal-Agent Analyses: Incentive Contracts, Asset Ownership, and Job Design’, Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization, 7(Special Issue): 24–52.
  • Holmstrom, Bengt and Paul Milgrom (1994). ‘The Firm as an Incentive System’, American Economic Review, 84(4) September: 972–91.
  • Holmstrom, Bengt and Jean Tirole (1991). ‘Transfer Pricing and Organizational Form’, Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 7(2) Fall: 201-28.
  • Walker, Paul (2013). ‘The ‘Reference Point’ Approach to the Theory of the Firm: An Introduction’, Journal of Economic Surveys, 27(4) September: 670–95.
  • Walker, Paul (2015). 'Contracts, Entrepreneurs, Market Creation and Judgement: The Contemporary Mainstream Theory of the Firm in Perspective'. Journal of Economic Surveys, v29 no2, April: 317-38

Monday, 10 October 2016

2016 Nobel Prize in economics

The 
Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 
2016 
was awarded jointly to 
Oliver Hart 
and 
Bengt Holmström 
"for their contributions to contract theory"
Press Release: The long and the short of contracts
Modern economies are held together by innumerable contracts. The new theoretical tools created by Hart and Holmström are valuable to the understanding of real-life contracts and institutions, as well as potential pitfalls in contract design.

Society’s many contractual relationships include those between shareholders and top executive management, an insurance company and car owners, or a public authority and its suppliers. As such relationships typically entail conflicts of interest, contracts must be properly designed to ensure that the parties take mutually beneficial decisions. This year’s laureates have developed contract theory, a comprehensive framework for analysing many diverse issues in contractual design, like performance-based pay for top executives, deductibles and co-pays in insurance, and the privatisation of public-sector activities.

In the late 1970s, Bengt Holmström demonstrated how a principal (e.g., a company’s shareholders) should design an optimal contract for an agent (the company’s CEO), whose action is partly unobserved by the principal. Holmström’s informativeness principle stated precisely how this contract should link the agent’s pay to performance-relevant information. Using the basic principal-agent model, he showed how the optimal contract carefully weighs risks against incentives. In later work, Holmström generalised these results to more realistic settings, namely: when employees are not only rewarded with pay, but also with potential promotion; when agents expend effort on many tasks, while principals observe only some dimensions of performance; and when individual members of a team can free-ride on the efforts of others.

In the mid-1980s, Oliver Hart made fundamental contributions to a new branch of contract theory that deals with the important case of incomplete contracts. Because it is impossible for a contract to specify every eventuality, this branch of the theory spells out optimal allocations of control rights: which party to the contract should be entitled to make decisions in which circumstances? Hart’s findings on incomplete contracts have shed new light on the ownership and control of businesses and have had a vast impact on several fields of economics, as well as political science and law. His research provides us with new theoretical tools for studying questions such as which kinds of companies should merge, the proper mix of debt and equity financing, and when institutions such as schools or prisons ought to be privately or publicly owned.

Through their initial contributions, Hart and Holmström launched contract theory as a fertile field of basic research. Over the last few decades, they have also explored many of its applications. Their analysis of optimal contractual arrangements lays an intellectual foundation for designing policies and institutions in many areas, from bankruptcy legislation to political constitutions.
Popular Science Background

Scientific Background.

A great award, contract theory is important in so many areas of economics now. For me, of course, its importance is in the theory of the firm. Both the work of Hart and Holmstrom has played a major role in the modern theory of the firm. In addition to the Ronald Coase (Nobel 1991) and Oliver Williamson (Nobel 2009) these guys are two of the biggest players in the field. Holmstrom's work has been in the area of the moral hazard in teams approach to the firm while Hart was one of the major developers of the incomplete contracts (or property rights) and reference point approaches to the firm.

Thursday, 16 April 2015

Oliver Hart - reference points and the theory of the firm

This series of videos, from sabanciuniversity, cover a talk given by Oliver Hart (Andrew E. Furer Professor of Economics at Harvard University) on the topic of "Reference Points and the Theory of the Firm". If you're into the theory of the firm - and lets face it, who isn't? - then these videos are well worth the time to watch. Each one is around 12-13 minutes long.











Thursday, 5 September 2013

Williamson plus Grossman-Hart-Moore gives?

In a comment on the death of Ronald Coase at the Cheap Talk blog it is asked,
But what are these pesky transactions costs that determine the boundary of the firm?
The answer given is that
There we have no consensus. One leading theory invokes costs of haggling ex post if two firms are not integrated (Wiliamson got the Nobel Prize for this theory). The other says there are no costs of haggling ex post and bargaining in efficient but there is a hold up problem in bargaining as surplus is split. Knowing this firms underinvest ex ante. The allocation of property rights affects the ex post division of surplus and hence this leads to a theory of optimal property rights (this theory has been developed by Oliver Hart with his co-authors Sandy Grossman and John Moore (GHM)).
Is the obvious third possibility not missing? A combination of Williamson and Grossman-Hart-Moore or the reference point approach due to Hart and Moore. As I have argued in Walker (2013: 690-1),
The reference point approach can be seen as a movement away from the ex ante GHM approach and back towards transaction cost thinking in so much as contracting is not perfectly contractible ex post. This fact, as Hart (2008, p. 294) points out ‘[...] is a significant departure from the standard contracting literature. The literature usually assumes that trade is perfectly enforceable ex post (for example by a court of law). Here we are assuming that only perfunctory performance can be enforced: consummate performance is always discretionary’, and thus inefficiencies can arise ex post. The development of a tractable model of contracts and organisational form that exhibits ex post inefficiency is one of motivations for advancing the reference point approach in the first place. (Hart and Moore, 2008, p. 4). Hart’s interpretation of the reference point theory is ‘[i]n a sense, this work can be viewed as a “merger” of the transaction cost and property rights literatures’. (Hart, 2011b, p. 106).
While it is true that there may be no overall consensus on which transaction costs matter for the boundaries of the firm, it is also true that the transaction costs and property rights approaches are not as diametrically opposed as the second quote above would suggest since a midway between them can also be found. Oliver Williamson has argued in the past that the ideas in Coase's paper "The Nature of the Firm" had for many years been under-used because the idea of transaction costs had not been "operationalised". What the above would suggest is that transaction costs have yet to be fully incorporated into a general theory but progress has been, and is still being, made.

Refs:
  • Hart, Oliver D. (2008). Economica Coase Lecture: reference points and the theory of the firm. Economica 75(299) August : 404–411.
  • Hart, Oliver D. (2011b) Thinking about the firm: a review of Daniel Spulbers the theory of the firm. Journal of Economic Literature 49(1) March: 101–113.
  • Hart, Oliver D. and Moore, John (2008). Contracts as reference points. Quarterly Journal of Economics 123(1) February: 1–48.
  • Walker, Paul (2013). The 'Reference Point' Approach to the Theory of the Firm: An Introduction. Journal of Economic Surveys, 27(4) September: 670-95.

Saturday, 15 June 2013

Why does the public oppose privatisation?

This question is asked by Sinclair Davidson over at The New Zealand Institute. Davidson writes,
Privatisation provides an interesting case study for free-marketeers. Almost everyone is opposed to the notion, yet those same people often buy the stock. So what is it about privatisation that everyone hates?

There are at least three arguments why voters may dislike privatisation. First, there is Bryan Caplan’s voter bias argument. Caplan has argued that voters suffer from four sources of bias – an anti-market bias, an anti-foreign bias, a make work bias, and a pessimism bias. Privatisation as a policy hits all them. Government using markets to sell assets to foreigners who will lay off workers? That couldn’t possibly work.

Then there is Thomas Sowell’s conflict of visions. Privatisation as a policy goes to the very core of the political debate. What is the appropriate role and function of the state in civil society and in the economy?

For those of us who suspect the answer to that question is ‘minimal, at best’, privatisation is an uncontroversial policy. For others not so much.

The thing to remember is that elite opinion holds that the state can and should do more, not less. This remains the case 30 years on from the Thatcher, Reagan, Douglas, and Hawke-Keating eras.

State ownership has many plausible theoretical arguments to support it. The theoretical arguments for privatisation seems weak. It is the empirical evidence that supports the principle of privatisation for many people. But without a clear theoretical basis for the policy, we run into the third problem that privatisation policy faces.
Ok up to this point. What I don't get is why he says that the theoretical base for privatisation is weak when there is a, albeit, relatively recent - post-1990 - literature that provides a solid theoretical base for privatisation. See below. Now I admit its not the kind of material that your average bloke in street is going to read sitting up in bed of a Sunday morning, but the job of the economist then is to make this bloke sit up and take notice.

As to what the theory of privatisation is let us start by noting that there is a surprising overlap between the theory of the firm and the theory of privatisation. The theory of the firm gives us a framework for the theory of privatisation. Hart (2003: C69) makes this clear when he writes,
"Let me begin by discussing the very close parallel between the theory of the firm and the theory of privatisation. In the vertical integration literature one considers two firms, A and B. A might be a car manufacturer and B might supply car-body parts. Suppose that there is some reason for A and B to have a long-term relationship (e.g., A or B must make a relationship-specific investment). Then there are two principal ways in which this relationship can be conducted. A and B can have an arms-length contract, but remain as independent firms; or A and B can merge and carry out the transaction within a single firm. The analogous question in the privatisation literature is the following. Suppose A represents the government and B represents a firm supplying the government or society with some service. B could be an electricity company (supplying consumers) or a prison (incarcerating criminals). Then again, there are two principal ways in which this relationship can be conducted. A and B can have a contract, with B remaining as a private firm, or the government can buy (nationalise) B".
and
"[ ... ] the issues of vertical integration and privatisation have much more in common than not. Both are concerned with whether it is better to regulate a relationship via an arms-length contract or via a transfer of ownership". Hart (2003: C70)
The incomplete contracting framework gives an approach which can be utilised to study the difference between public and private ownership. In fact incomplete contracts are a necessary condition to explain the differences between the two forms of ownership. In a world of complete or comprehensive contracts there is no difference between private and state owned firms. In both cases the government can write a contract with the firm that will anticipate all future contingencies - it will detail the managers' compensation, the pricing policy of the firm, how changes in technology will the change the firm's products etc - and thus the outcome under both forms of ownership will be the same.

This intuition has been formalised into a series of what are called Neutrality Theorems. These theorems formally establish the conditions under which private or public ownership of productive assets is irrelevant for the final allocation of resources. In short they show the conditions under which ownership of the firm does not matter.

Of all the assumptions on which the neutrality results hinge the most important requirement is, as noted above, that complete contingent long-term contracts can be written and enforced. But writing complete contracts is only possible in a world of zero transaction costs. In a positive transaction costs world only incomplete contracts can be written but contractual incompleteness creates a role for ownership - making decisions under conditions not covered in the contract. It is only within such an environment that we can explain why privatisation matters, that is, why the behaviour of state owned and private companies differ.

These neutrality results also show why the previous, roughly pre-1990, theoretical privatisation literature was largely unsuccessful. That literature took a `complete' or `comprehensive' contracting perspective, in which any imperfections present in contracts arose solely because of moral hazard or asymmetric information. But as Hart (2003: C70) notes
"[ ... ] if the only imperfections in are those arising from moral hazard or asymmetric information, organisational form - including ownership and firm boundaries - does not matter: an owner has no special power or rights since everything is specified in an initial contract (at least among the things that can ever be specified). In contrast, ownership does matter when contracts are incomplete: the owner of an asset or firm can then make all decisions concerning the asset or firm that are not included in an initial contract (the owner has 'residual control rights').

Applying this insight to the privatisation context yields the conclusion that in a complete contracting world the government does not need to own a firm to control its behaviour: any goals - economic or otherwise - can be achieved via a detailed initial contract. However, if contracts are incomplete, as they are in practice, there is a case for the government to own an electricity company or prison since ownership gives the government special powers in the form of residual control rights".

Thus privatisation matters only in an incomplete contracts world. In such an environment the allocation of residual control rights will differ and so the behaviour of publicly owned firms will differ from that of privately owned firms and thus ownership and therefore privatisation will become meaningful. This is the basic approach taken in the post-1990 literature.

Schmidt (1996a) considers a monopolistic firm that producers a public good in a world of incomplete contracts. (Schmidt (1996a) is variant of Schmidt (1996b). 1996b considers the case of privatisation to an employee manager while 1996a applies to the case of privatisation to an owner-manager. While this second case is less realistic it is simpler and does not require the assumption that the manager is an empire builder that is utilised in 1996b.) His model is multiple period with the privatisation decision being made in the initial period. That is, the government must decide whether to sell the SOE to a private owner-manager or keep it in state hands and hire a professional manager to run it. Importantly knowledge concerning the firm's cost is private information known only by the firm's owner. Given this, privatisation amounts to a transfer of private information from the government to the private owner. In the next period the manager selects his effort level and the state of the world is then revealed. The importance of the manager's effort level is that it affects the probability of the state of the world. A high level of effort from the manager results in productive efficiency being enhanced and costs being lowered for any level of output. In the last period, the government selects the transfer scheme and payoffs are revealed.

When the firm is an SOE the government observes the firm's realised cost function and thus can implement the first-best allocation by choosing the ex post efficient level of production. But the manager's wage will be fixed, since contingent contracts can not be written, and thus independent of level of output. Given this the manager has no incentive to exert effort and the government knowing this will therefore offer him only his reservation wage.

On the other hand when the firm is in private hands the government does no know the exact cost structure of the firm. In an effort to get the private owner to produce the efficient level of output the government must provide an incentive via the payment of an informational rent.But if transfer are costly it will be impossible to implement the optimal allocation and therefore the cost to private ownership is an inefficiently low level of production. However given the rent payment provides an incentive to increase effort, productive efficiency is greater.

Schmidt's main conclusion is therefore that when the monopolistic firm produces a good or service which provides a social benefit, there is a trade-off between allocative and productive efficiency that needs to be considered when deciding if a firm is to be privatised. The equilibrium production level is socially suboptimal but the incentive for better management results in cost savings. Considered overall the welfare effect of privatisation should be positive for cases where the social benefits are small, but social welfare will be greater under public ownership for those cases where production exhibits large social benefits.

An important implication of this is that a case can be made for privatisation even when the government is a fully benevolent dictator who wishes to maximise social welfare. Even if all the deficiencies of the political system could be remedied it is still possible for privatisation to be superior to state ownership.

In the Laffont and Tirole (1991) model a firm is assumed to be producing a public good with a technology that requires investment by the firm's manager. In the case of a public firm this investment can be diverted by the government to serve social ends. For example, the return on investment in a network could be reduced by the government if it were to allow ex post access to the general population. Such an action may be socially optimal but would expropriate part of the firm's investment. A rational expectation of such an expropriation would reduce the incentives of a public firm's manager to make the required investment. For a private firm, the manager's incentives to invest are better given that both the firm's owners and the manager are interested in profit maximisation. The cost of private ownership is that the firm must deal with two masters who have conflicting objectives: shareholders wish to maximise profits while the government purses economic efficiency. Both groups have incomplete knowledge about the firm's cost structure and have to offer incentive schemes to induce the manager to act in accordance with their interests. Obviously the game here is a multi-principal game which dilutes the incentives and yields low-powered managerial incentive schemes and low managerial rents. Each principal fails internalise the effects of contracting on the other principal and provides socially too few incentives to the firm's management. The added incentive for the managers of a private firm to invest is countered by the low powered managerial incentive schemes that the private firm's managers face. The net effect of these two insights is ambiguous with regard to the relative cost efficiency of the public and private firms. Laffont and Tirole can not identify conditions under which privatisation is better than state ownership.

Shapiro and Willig (1990) consider a world in which there is a public-spirited social planner or framer who decides on the nationalisation/privatisation outcome and sets up the governance structure for the enterprise chosen. The framer's decision is driven by the informational differences between private and public ownership. The important pieces of information are: (i) information about external social benefits generated by the firm; (ii) information concerning the difference between the ``public interest" and the private agenda of the regulator; (iii) information about the firm's profit level (cost and demand information). In this paper there is also a regulator who sets the regulations that control the private firm and who pursues a different agenda from the framer.

Assume that either information about profitability is known before investment is decided upon or that there are costs to raising public funds. In these cases the neutrality results mentioned above don't hold. The equilibrium behaviour of the minister who is in charge of the firm is virtually unconstrained and he will set the activity levels of the firm as to maximise his utility. The regulator of the private firm has a more complex problem to deal with. This involves the designing of regulatory scheme which ensures non-negative profits for the firm. Given this is a case of optimal regulation under asymmetric information we would expect to see the firm enjoying informational rent, which are proportional to the activity chosen. As public funds are costly to raise these transfers are costly to the state.

The trade-off in this model is driven by how easily the public official can interfere with the operations of the firm. If the public official's objectives are the same of the (welfare maximising) framer, i.e. the public official has not private agenda, then public ownership is optimal. In this case private ownership reduces performance since the firm extracts a positive information rent. But when there is a private agenda then a reduction in discretion may increase welfare. Politicians find it easier to distort the operations of a firm in their favour when that firm is an SOE and under the direct control of the minister. The regulated private firms does earn a positive rent but is less subject to the control of the regulator. This means that regulated private firms are likely to out perform SOEs in poorly functioning political systems,which are open to abuse by the minister, and where the private information about the profitability of the firm is less significant. This makes it easier for the regulator to get the firm to maximise social welfare.

In Boycko, Shleifer and Vishny (1996) information problems do not explain the difference between public and private firms. Here it is differences in the costs to a politician of interfering in the activities of the different types of firms that explains the effects of privatisation. The starting point of the paper is the observation that public firms are inefficient because they address objectives of politicians rather than maximise efficiency. One common objective for a politician is employment. Maintaining employment helps the politician maintain his power base. In their model Boycko, Shleifer and Vishny assume a spending politician, who controls a public firm, forces it to spend too much on employment. The politician does not fully internalise the cost of the profits foregone by the Treasury and by the private shareholders that the firm might have.

Boycko, Shleifer and Vishny argue privatisation can be a strategy to reduce this inefficiency in state-owned enterprises. By privatisation they mean the reallocation of control rights over employment from politicians to a firm's managers and the reallocation of income rights to the firm's managers and private owners. The spending politician will still want to maintain employment and can use government subsidies to `buy' excess employment at the private firm. In this model the advantage of privatisation is that it increases the political costs to maintaining excess employment. It is less costly for the politician to spend the profits of the state-owned firm on labour without remitting them to the Treasury than it is to generate new subsidies for a privatised firm. Given that voters will be unaware of the potential profits that a state firm is wasting on hiring excess labour they are less likely to object than they are to the use of taxes, which they know they are paying, to subsidise a private firm not to restructure. This difference between the political costs of foregone profits of state firms and of subsidies to private firms is the channel through which privatisation works in this paper.

Shleifer and Vishny (1994) is a continuation of research stated in Boycko, Shleifer and Vishny (1996). As with the 1996 paper Shleifer and Vishny assume that there is a relationship between politicians and firm mangers that is governed by incomplete contracts and thus ownership becomes critical in determining resource allocation. As noted above the Shleifer and Vishny model is a game between the public, the politicians and the firm managers. The model derives the implications of bargaining between politicians and managers over what the firms will do. A particular focus is on the role of transfers between the private and state sectors including subsidies to firms and bribes to politicians.

To consider the determinants of privatisation and nationalisation Shleifer and Vishny utilise what they term a "decency constraint" which says that the government cannot openly subsidise a profitable firm. To do so would be seen as politicians enriching their friends. The first, obvious, point made is that politicians are always better off when they have control rights. Control brings political benefits, via excess employment, and bribes, to allow a reduction in the excess employment. Both the Treasury and the politicians prefer nationalisation. (Remember that as a SOE the Treasury has income rights and the politician has control rights.) to subsidising a money-losing private firm. Control brings bribes and even without bribes politicians get a higher level of employment and lower subsidies when they have control. The Treasury likes the smaller subsidies that come with nationalisation. When it comes to profitable firms politicians like control or Treasury ownership because these firms have a strong incentive to restructure since the profits go to the private owners and they lose little in terms of subsides due to the decency constraint. To ensure the firms achieve political objectives politicians need control. Given the decency constraint politicians don't want managers who have control rights to also have large income rights since the decency constraint means smaller subsidies are lost if employment is cut and income rights mean the managers gain from restructuring and maximising profits. Politicians who have control prefer higher private and lower Treasury ownership since higher private ownership implies higher bribes. Without bribes the private surplus is extracted via higher levels of employment.

Given that politicians like control, Why would they ever privatise a firm? To explain privatisation the interests of taxpayers must become more prominent. Given this the decision to privatise then becomes the outcome of competition between politicians who benefit from government spending (and bribes) and politicians who benefit from low taxes and support from taxpayers. We would expect privatisation to take place when political benefits of public control are low, and the desire of the Treasury to limit subsidies is high. This is most likely to occur when the political costs of raising taxes to pay subsides is high and when the political benefits from excess employment are low.

The final paper to be considered is Hart, Shleifer and Vishny (1997). Again in this paper information problems are not the driving force of the analysis of contracting out. The provider of a service, either public or private, can invest his time in improving the quality of the service or reducing the cost of the service. The important assumption is that investments in cost reduction have negative effects on quality. Investments are non-contractible ex ante. For the case where the provider is a government employee he must obtain approval from the government to implement any innovation he has created. Given that the government has residual rights the employee will gain only a fraction of return on his investment. This gives him weak incentives to innovate. If the service provider in an independent contractor, i.e. the service has been contracted out, then he will have stronger incentives to both cut costs and improve quality. This is because he keeps the returns to his investment. The downside to private provision is that the incentives to cut costs are strong and the provider does not fully internalise the negative effects on quality of the reductions in cost. With public provision the incentive for excessive cost cutting are reduced as are the incentive for innovation and quality improvements. Costs are always lower under private ownership but quality may be higher or lower under a private owner. Hart, Shleifer and Vishny argue that the case for public provision is generally stronger when (i) non-contractible cost reductions have large deleterious effects on quality; (ii) quality innovations are unimportant; (iii) corruption in government procurement is a severe problem. On the other hand their argument suggests that the case for privatisation is stronger when (i) quality-reducing cost reductions can be controlled through contract or competition; (ii) quality innovations are important; (iii) patronage and powerful unions are a severe problem inside the government.

So arguing that the theoretical basis for privatisation is weak is, I would argue, wrong and the job of any economist arguing for privatisation is to explain this theory to the public, no matter how difficult that may seem.The theory is there and if you want to argue for privatisation you need to find a way of making it  intelligible to the general public.

Davidson continues,
The promoter’s problem suggests that you can’t always trust the person trying to sell you something. Given that voters have such poor opinions of politicians, this might be especially true for a privatisation policy. It is easy to believe that past privatisations may have been successful, but that is no guarantee that future privatisations will be.

To be sure, not all privatisations are successful and some can be described as having failed after the fact. But the rate of failure is lower for all firms.
For an example of a not so successful privatisations one only has to look at the first large scale privatisation programme in Chile in the mid-1970s. Luder (1991) writes in his abstract,
Between 1974 and 1989, the Chilean government privatized 550 state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Before 1974, all but a handful of major corporations were SOEs. About 50 of the largest enterprises privatized during the 1970s fell into government hands again, only to be re-privatized later. This was due partly to the economic and financial crisis affecting most Latin American countries during the early 1980s but also was a consequence of the privatization modes used. This paper analyzes that unique privatization experience so as to extract policy lessons. The analysis focuses on economic conditions, objectives of government policy, privatization modes, and the divestiture effects on employment, fiscal revenues, public sector wealth, spread of own- ership, and capital market development. (Emphasis added)
In the text Luders writes,
Between 1974 and 1990, the Chilean government privatized about 550 enterprises under public sector control. These included all but a handful of the country's largest corporations. Moreover, the reversal during the early 1980s of the most important divestitures carried out during the first round of privatizations (1974-1978) allowed the government to apply different modes of divestiture during the second round (1985-1989).
and
Consequently, the government intervened in 16 financial institutions. It liquidated a few of them and put in a sound position and re-privatized the remainder. That is, the government, which did not legally own the financial institutions, assumed complete control of a high proportion of the assets it had privatized during the 1970s. These financial institutions included the main commercial banks, whose owners controlled the major pension fund administrators (AFP) and large commercial and industrial enterprises. Because intervention blurred the ownership relationship of these enterprises—i.e., they neither belonged to the public sector nor were owned by the private sector—this group of enterprises was called the "odd sector." Re-privatizing these enterprises as well as other traditional SOEs constituted the second large privatization effort that the military regime carried out.
In short, when privatisation goes wrong, it really can go wrong! Much of the 1970s privatisations had to be redone in the 1980s because they didn't get it right the first time.

Davidson ends by saying,
To my mind, privatisation is always a good thing. But there is a sting in the tail. Very often the proceeds of privatisation are used to buy down debt – in other words, validate past irresponsible government spending. The capacity for debt and deficit is unlimited while the stock of government assets that can be sold off is limited.

The challenge is to embed privatisation schemes into a broader reform agenda.
He is right here, a consistent well thought out reform package is needed. In particular sound market regulation must be in place so that the markets that the SOEs are privatised into are as competitive as possible. Markets have to be opened to competitors before the SOEs are privatised so that the (former)SOE has no incentive to lobby for slow and cautious market liberalisation or better still no liberalisation at all.

This does raise the issue of whether the current government's idea of a partial privatisation of some SOEs is a well thought out reform package. I would say no.

If you look at the economics literature you will also find that fully private companies outperform mixed ownership firms. Some insight on this is offered by a recent paper in the Scottish Journal of Political Economy (Volume 59, Issue 1, pages 1–27, February 2012). The paper "What Drives the Operating Performance of Privatised Firms?" by Laura Cabeza García and Silvia Gómez Ansón argues that the greater the amount of privatisation the better the performance of the firm. Not an entirely surprising result as the full force of market discipline can only be applied if the firm is fully in private hands but it is something for the government to keep in mind. It would suggest that any performance improvements due to the government's partial privatisation plans will be modest. The abstract reads,
Using a panel data analysis of Spanish privatised firms, we study how different factors influence the operating performance of divested companies. The results show that it is not privatisation per se but other factors that matter. After controlling for possible sample selection bias related to government timing of divestments, we find that the greater the relinquishment of State control and the smaller the percentage of ownership held by managers and/or employees, the better the firms’ post-privatisation performance. Moreover, privatisations that are accompanied by liberalisation programmes and occur during buoyant economic cycles turn out to be more successful. (Emphasis added)
When you look at the performance of mixed ownership firms they don't do as well as fully privately owned firms. For example, Aidan Vinning and Anthony Boardman in "Ownership and Performance in Competitive Environments: A Comparison of the Performance of Private, Mixed, and State-Owned Enterprises", Journal of Law and Economics vol. XXXII (April 1989) conclude
'The results provide evidence that after controlling for a wide variety of factors, large industrial MEs [mixed enterprises] and SOEs perform substantially worse than similar PCs [private corporations].'
So fully private firms out-perform mixed ownership firms.

Why might the government's idea not work? Simply put there are 6 reasons I can think of:
  • First, selling only 49% of the shares in the companies is unlikely to make a huge difference to the way the SOEs are run. In particular the sell off will not make the firms any more efficient since the government will still be the controlling shareholder.
  • Second, if the government really does want to maximise the income it gets from the sales selling 49% is not a good idea. 51% is worth a lot more than 49%, that is people will pay a premium for control.
  • Third, selling to "Mums and Dads" will do nothing for the amount of money raised, since Mums and Dads will need a discount to make them buy shares.
  • Fourth, selling to "Mums and Dads" will do nothing for the efficiency effect of having private owners, since there will be too many "Mums and Dads" for them to be able to coordinate their effects to effect the firm's behaviour.
  • Fifth, given that each "Mum or Dad" will own only a very small share of any of the firms, they have little incentive to become informed on the firm's activities since they will only capture a very small amount of any improvement in performance they could bring about. This is another reason why performance is unlikely to change.
  • Sixth, the discipline of bankruptcy or takeover is not greater since the government is still the controlling shareholder and is unlikely to let either of these options happen.
Note to self, write shorter posts from now on!

Refs:
  • Boycko, Maxim, Andrei Shleifer and Robert W. Vishny (1996). `A Theory of Privatisation', The Economic Journal, 106 no. 435 March: 309-19.
  • Hart, Oliver D. (2003). `Incomplete Contracts and Public Ownership: Remarks, and an Application to Public-Private Partnerships', The Economic Journal, 113 No. 486 Conference Papers March: C69-C76.
  • Hart, Oliver D., Andrei Shleifer and Robert W. Vishny (1997). `The Proper Scope of Government: Theory and an Application to Prisons', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(4) November: 1127-61.
  • Laffont, Jean-Jacques and Jean Tirole (1991). `Privatization and Incentives', Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization, 7 (Special Issue) [Papers from the Conference on the New Science of Organization, January 1991]: 84-105.
  • Luders, Rolf J. (1991). `Massive Divestiture and Privatization: Lessons from Chile'. Contemporary Economic Policy, 9(4) October: 1-19.
  • Schmidt, Klaus (1996a). `Incomplete Contracts and Privatization', European Economic Review, 40(3-5): 569-79.
  • Schmidt, Klaus (1996b). `The Costs and Benefits of Privatization: An Incomplete Contracts Approach', The Journal of Law, Economics & Organization, 12(1): 1-24.
  • Shapiro, Carl and Robert D. Willig (1990). `Economic Rationales for Privatization in Industrial and Developing Countries'. In Ezra N. Suleiman and John Waterbury, (eds.), The Political Economy of Public-Sector Reform and Privatization, Boulder: Westview Press.
  • Shleifer, Andrei and Robert W. Vishny (1994). `Politicians and Firms', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(4) November: 995-1025.