tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5404820640426099135.post2424948942672915950..comments2023-10-31T00:46:35.316+13:00Comments on Anti-Dismal: The usefulness of macroPaul Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13731003529546075700noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5404820640426099135.post-14613745363024408662010-08-05T16:01:08.043+12:002010-08-05T16:01:08.043+12:00I'd say that the discussion is not so much on ...I'd say that the discussion is not so much on macro - but just on the subset of macroforecasters. <br /><br />My main point is that the purpose of macroforecasters is being misinterpreted - which is making it sound like that don't add anything.<br /><br />Again, it would be great if we could model the economy as a closed system with a range of incentives - but as GE theory told us we can't really identify what is going on here. And even if we made restrictive assumptions on the theory, the data is horrendously imperfect.<br /><br />As a result, we do the best we can with imperfect tools - as the "first best tools" don't exist.<br /><br />And as you say, it is unlikely people would go around hiring macroforecasters if there wasn't some associated value - the value of which I've discussed constantly over on tvhe.Matt Nolanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05615455113796090765noreply@blogger.com