tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5404820640426099135.post7249116806371747637..comments2023-10-31T00:46:35.316+13:00Comments on Anti-Dismal: $123,000,000,000,000 questionPaul Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13731003529546075700noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5404820640426099135.post-14970577125388946762010-01-14T13:33:59.805+13:002010-01-14T13:33:59.805+13:00Tim
I agree, its about timing rather than whether...Tim<br /><br />I agree, its about timing rather than whether or not the Chinese economy will get that big. 2040 is a big call, but its not impossible. If China keeps growing as it has over the last 20 years, $123 trillion is on the cards.Paul Walkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13731003529546075700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5404820640426099135.post-47127410049374961512010-01-13T23:01:07.192+13:002010-01-13T23:01:07.192+13:00by 2040?
That's a brave call.
However, if we...by 2040?<br /><br />That's a brave call.<br /><br />However, if we look at the forecasts the IPCC uses (from the SRES) to look at economic growth and thus emissions paths, if we have a capitalist, globalised, world then World GDP should hit $550 trillion in 2100.<br /><br />China, purely based upon population share (ie, not adjusting for Africa being poorer etc), would be 15-20 % of that. $110 trillion or more.<br /><br />So not out of order by any means, it's the 2040 bit that is brave, not the size of the economty.Tim Worstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13161727860817121071noreply@blogger.com